Browse Data and Analysis

Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast to see record low plantings of rapeseed oilseeds (rapeseed) in the United Kingdom (UK), down below 250 thousand hectares, with production falling below 750 thousand metric tons.

Post New Delhi forecasts total oilseed production to reach 43 million metric tons (MMT) for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26, marking a slight increase. For the first time, rapeseed production is expected to surpass soybean production, driven by improved price realization.

The installation of Bangladesh’s Interim Government in August 2024, has led to a renewed focus on macroeconomic stability, which will enable increased exports to the market as restrictions on Letters of Credit ease as foreign currency reserves stabilize.

FAS New Delhi lowered the marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 forecast for rapeseed area harvested to 8.9 million hectares (HA) and production to 11.7 million metric tons (MMT), due to a shift in cropping pattern toward more lucrative crops.

In October 2024, the National Biosafety Committee (NBC) authorized imports of genetically engineered (GE) soybeans for food, feed, and processing. GE soybean imports are expected to resume in 2025, boosting prospects that the 1.5-million-ton import forecast for 2024/25 will be achieved.

MY 2023/24 saw rather disappointing yields for the UK rapeseed oilseed crop overall. In MY 2024/25 rapeseed production is forecast even lower at 900 thousand metric tons (MT) due to a combination of poor growing conditions, a sharp fall in the price of rapeseed, pest pressure and the increased attractiveness of agri-environment options.

India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October-September) is forecast to reach 41.9 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal drop from MY2023/2024 estimate of 42.7 MMT due weaker prices for Indian producers, limited agricultural input availability, and weather trends.

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding implementation, in January 2024 the government approved a system allowing for the resumption of genetically engineered commodity imports.

On June 14, 2023, India’s Ministry of Finance issued Public Notice No. 39/2023 - Customs that reduces the import duty on refined sunflower and soybean oils.

MY 2022/23 has been overshadowed by the developments in Ukraine. However, a larger than forecast rapeseed harvest, following favorable growing conditions, avoided the UK being reliant on imported oilseeds, meals, and oils.

As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports.

India’s rapeseed and mustard (rapeseed-mustard) production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) is forecast to drop slightly to 11.4 million metric tons, harvested from a record 9.2 million hectares following a favorable monsoon performance in the state of Rajasthan.