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Recovering from weather challenges in the first part of MY 24/25, Post forecasts MY 25/26 Malaysia palm oil production to increase to 18.5 million metric tons (MT).

FAS Kuala Lumpur (Post) projects a slight decrease in palm oil production in Market year (MY) 24/25 to 19.2 million metric tons (MT) on recent weather challenges and lower than average production in the beginning months of the MY. With palm oil at a premium to competing vegetable oils, Post estimates a decrease in exports of approximately 770 thousand MT for MY 24/25.

In October 2024, the National Biosafety Committee (NBC) authorized imports of genetically engineered (GE) soybeans for food, feed, and processing. GE soybean imports are expected to resume in 2025, boosting prospects that the 1.5-million-ton import forecast for 2024/25 will be achieved.

Post forecasts Malaysia’s palm oil production in MY 24/25 at 19.2 million metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 23/24 projections due to delayed effects of the El Niño season.

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding implementation, in January 2024 the government approved a system allowing for the resumption of genetically engineered commodity imports.

As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports.

Due to the recent ban on genetically engineered (GE) commodity imports, the 2022/23 soybean import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 1.2 million tons. With the lower expected soybean imports, 2022/23 crush and soybean meal output is reduced accordingly.

Post maintains the projections for 2021/22 and updates MY 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook on production resulting from good weather conditions and an improved labor situation.

Due to the poultry industry’s slow recovery and sluggish consumer demand for edible oils, no significant growth in oilseed and edible oil use is forecast for 2022/23. Likewise, soybean, canola, and palm oil imports in 2022/23 are forecast to remain similar to 2021/22 levels.

Only limited growth in soybean and vegetable oil imports is forecast for 2021/22. Rising prices and changes in taxation policies are hindering demand for meal from the poultry sector and capping growth in edible oil demand.

Post revised its MY 2021/22 crude palm oil (CPO) production downward from 18.2 million tons to 18.0 million tons, taking into account the effect of anomalous weather from the super typhoon Rai (a month of rain recorded in one day on December 18 in Peninsular Malaysia) and the continuing acute labor issue the industry has faced since 2019.

Post is adjusting its MY 2021/22 crude palm oil (CPO) production forecast down 1.5 million metric tons (MT) from the USDA Official estimate to 18.2 million MT.