Browse Data and Analysis

Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast to see record low plantings of rapeseed oilseeds (rapeseed) in the United Kingdom (UK), down below 250 thousand hectares, with production falling below 750 thousand metric tons.

Argentina’s oilseed sector enters marketing year (MY) 2025/2026 with diverging trajectories across key crops. Soybean area is forecast to contract by nearly one million hectares as producers revert to traditional corn rotations following a soy-heavy year driven by pest concerns.

Argentina’s oilseed sector faces a mixed outlook in MY 2024/25, Post lowers soybean production to 49 MMT, impacted by drought but showing signs of recovery, while sunflower (4 MMT) and peanut (1.605 MMT) production remain strong.

Post maintains the previous forecast for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 for Argentina's soybean production at 52 million metric tons (MMT), consistent with the USDA's official estimate.

Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions.

Post forecasts Argentina soybean production at 51 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 as production returns to assuming good weather in the year ahead and increased soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn, particularly in late or second crop soy.

MY 2023/24 saw rather disappointing yields for the UK rapeseed oilseed crop overall. In MY 2024/25 rapeseed production is forecast even lower at 900 thousand metric tons (MT) due to a combination of poor growing conditions, a sharp fall in the price of rapeseed, pest pressure and the increased attractiveness of agri-environment options.

Post lowers marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 production to 49.5 million metric tons (MMT), still nearly double last year’s crop, based on a stretch of dry and hot weather in the major production areas despite previous ideal rains following planting.

MY 2022/23 has been overshadowed by the developments in Ukraine. However, a larger than forecast rapeseed harvest, following favorable growing conditions, avoided the UK being reliant on imported oilseeds, meals, and oils.

Post lowers its 2022/2023 estimate for Argentine soybean production to 23.9 million metric tons (MMT). This production estimate is the lowest in 24 year and the yield estimate is the lowest in almost 50 years. As a result of the drought, Post estimates that Argentina will need to import a record 11 MMT of soybeans to achieve a crush of 29.5 MMT.

MY2022/23 is characterized by a small decrease in rapeseed production and an increase in imports of soybean meal and oil. Total United Kingdom (UK) rapeseed area in MY2022/23 is forecast to increase by 17 percent with an anticipated yield of 3Mt per hectare, slightly below the Defra five-year average of 3.3Mt per hectare.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23 Post projects a recovery in Argentine soybean planted acreage to 17 million hectares (HA) resulting in 51 million metric tons (MMT) of soybean production as farmers shift acreage out of cereal crops that require more fertilizer. MY 2022/23 sunflowerseed planted acreage is projected up at 2 million HA, with total production estimated at 4 MMT in response to high prices.