Browse Data and Analysis

Dashboard that demonstrates the scope of Black Sea grain and oilseed trade. Millions of tons of grain are shipped through these international waters each year, making the Black Sea region a major supplier of agricultural commodities worldwide.

MY 2022/23 has been overshadowed by the developments in Ukraine. However, a larger than forecast rapeseed harvest, following favorable growing conditions, avoided the UK being reliant on imported oilseeds, meals, and oils.

The Black Sea region is a significant supplier of agricultural commodities to the world. Over the past year, global grain and oilseed markets have been roiled by the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine.

MY 2023/24 European Union oilseed production is forecast to increase by over four percent over the previous drought affected year.

Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area to reach 45.2 million hectares (ha) in 2023/24 season, up from the estimated 43.5 mn ha planted in the 2022/23 season.

FAS/Mexico expects slower growth in the vegetable oil and oil meal sectors in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 compared to recent years, given potential declines in consumer purchasing power, a forecast slowdown in Mexico’s economy, and persistent inflation.

Egyptian traders and crushers continue to demand sustainability and quality of supply, both of which are key features of U.S.-origin soybean. This demand produced another record year for U.S.-origin soybean exports to Egypt with 4.07 MMT in exports, was by far Egypt’s largest supplier of soybeans in marketing year 2021/22.

Post lowers its 2022/2023 estimate for Argentine soybean production to 23.9 million metric tons (MMT). This production estimate is the lowest in 24 year and the yield estimate is the lowest in almost 50 years. As a result of the drought, Post estimates that Argentina will need to import a record 11 MMT of soybeans to achieve a crush of 29.5 MMT.

Australian oilseed production, dominated by canola, is expected to be strong again in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, but down from the record in MY 2022/23. Canola production is forecast in MY 2023/24 at 5.5 million metric tons (MMT), the third largest from the record-busting crop estimated at 8.3 MMT in MY 2022/23.

In MY 2021/22, the total value of Japan’s soybean imports reached a historical record while rapeseed crush hit the lowest point in 10 years as rapeseed imports from Canada declined.

FAS Manila forecasts copra production at 3 million MT for MY 2023/24 because of the coming El Niño and the break from the 3-year productive cycle. Soybean meal imports are projected to reach 2.9 million MT because of expected expansion in the broiler and aquaculture sectors.

FAS/Managua projects marketing year 2023/24 Nicaraguan peanut production to return to historic high levels, near 200,000 metric tons on an in-shell basis, as deteriorating political conditions and rising economic instability improve the risk-reward calculations of peanuts relative to longer-term investments in sugar or cattle.