Browse Data and Analysis

Argentina’s oilseed sector enters marketing year (MY) 2025/2026 with diverging trajectories across key crops. Soybean area is forecast to contract by nearly one million hectares as producers revert to traditional corn rotations following a soy-heavy year driven by pest concerns.

The installation of Bangladesh’s Interim Government in August 2024, has led to a renewed focus on macroeconomic stability, which will enable increased exports to the market as restrictions on Letters of Credit ease as foreign currency reserves stabilize.

Argentina’s oilseed sector faces a mixed outlook in MY 2024/25, Post lowers soybean production to 49 MMT, impacted by drought but showing signs of recovery, while sunflower (4 MMT) and peanut (1.605 MMT) production remain strong.

Post maintains the previous forecast for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 for Argentina's soybean production at 52 million metric tons (MMT), consistent with the USDA's official estimate.

Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions.

Post forecasts Argentina soybean production at 51 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 as production returns to assuming good weather in the year ahead and increased soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn, particularly in late or second crop soy.

Despite economic challenges and high feed prices, demand for feed is expected to grow in Bangladesh as large commercial poultry farms expand their operations and some major feed producers have initiated contract poultry farming.

Post lowers marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 production to 49.5 million metric tons (MMT), still nearly double last year’s crop, based on a stretch of dry and hot weather in the major production areas despite previous ideal rains following planting.

Post lowers marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 soy production at 20.5 million metric tons (MMT) still below the USDA official on lower than expected harvest area and yields due to drought. Post lowers MY2022/2023 crush to 26 MMT due to decreased exports and the lowest crush operation rates decades during recent months.

Post estimates MY 2022/2023 soybean production at 21.25 million metric tons (MMT), 3.75 MMT below the official USDA estimate on lower than expected yields.

Post lowers its 2022/2023 estimate for Argentine soybean production to 23.9 million metric tons (MMT). This production estimate is the lowest in 24 year and the yield estimate is the lowest in almost 50 years. As a result of the drought, Post estimates that Argentina will need to import a record 11 MMT of soybeans to achieve a crush of 29.5 MMT.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post’s soybean import forecast is 2.4 million MT, on Bangladesh rebounding from its current economic slowdown, while local soybean production remains flat.