Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Pretoria’s Oilseeds and Products annual report provides information on the production, supply, and distribution for soybean, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed in South Africa for marketing year (MY) 2023/24, MY 2024/25, and MY 2025/26.

Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area to 48.2 million hectares (ha) in the 2025/26 season, up from an estimated 47.3 million ha in 2024/25.

Post increased the 2024/25 forecast for soybean planted area expansion in Brazil to 47 million hectares (HA) and soybean production to 165 million metric tons (MMT). This season sowing began optimistically, with most soybeans planted on time compared to last year.

Soybeans from the United States are once again eligible to enter South Africa. After a mid-summer drought that caused a 35 percent drop in production, South Africa needs to import soybeans to supplement domestic production and maintain crushing demand.

Post revises down its Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 production estimates to 150 million metric tons (MMT) due to (i) the recent floods in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul and (ii) lower yields across several states.

During the past few years, the landscape for U.S. renewable diesel production has drastically changed, akin to the growth of ethanol and biodiesel during the past two decades. Driven by federal and state policies aimed at reducing emissions, this dramatic U.S. renewable diesel production and capacity growth is causing significant, market-altering shifts both domestically and to foreign feedstock trade.

Fresh fruit bunch (FBB) and kernel yields are expected to remain high in MY2024/25 due to stabilized fertilizer prices and a good weather forecast. In response to the growing domestic and export demands, MY2024/25 soybean production forecast has been raised by 16 percent over the preceding year’s estimate.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 planted area will expand at a slower growth rate, reaching 45.6 million hectares (ha). Post forecasts MY 2024/25 production at 157.5 million metric tons (MMT), 4.9 MMT more than the revised estimate in MY 2023/24.

Post revises down MY 2023/24 soybean production to 158.5 MMT due to poor weather outlooks resulting from El Niño, particularly in the Centre West states, which may affect final yields currently projected at 3.507 kg/ha.

Post increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 45.4 million hectares for 2022/23, up previously from 45.2 million hectares.

For 2023/24, Post forecasts soybean planted area at 45.2 million hectares (ha), and production at 159 million metric tons (MMT), based on a yield of 3.52 mt per ha.

Post forecasts MY2023/24 palm oil production up by 20 percent over the current marketing year’s estimate. Total domestic consumption is forecast marginally up, imports are expected to drop by 14 percent due to increased domestic production, but exports are forecast significantly up compared to the current marketing year’s estimate.