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FAS Kuala Lumpur (Post) projects a slight decrease in palm oil production in Market year (MY) 24/25 to 19.2 million metric tons (MT) on recent weather challenges and lower than average production in the beginning months of the MY. With palm oil at a premium to competing vegetable oils, Post estimates a decrease in exports of approximately 770 thousand MT for MY 24/25.

Post forecasts Malaysia’s palm oil production in MY 24/25 at 19.2 million metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 23/24 projections due to delayed effects of the El Niño season.

Fresh fruit bunch (FBB) and kernel yields are expected to remain high in MY2024/25 due to stabilized fertilizer prices and a good weather forecast. In response to the growing domestic and export demands, MY2024/25 soybean production forecast has been raised by 16 percent over the preceding year’s estimate.

Malaysia was the 26th-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2022, totaling nearly $1.1 billion in value, and is a top prospect for exports of food and beverage ingredients because of its large and growing food processing industry.

Post forecasts MY2023/24 palm oil production up by 20 percent over the current marketing year’s estimate. Total domestic consumption is forecast marginally up, imports are expected to drop by 14 percent due to increased domestic production, but exports are forecast significantly up compared to the current marketing year’s estimate.

Marketing year (MY) 2022/23 palm kernel production is forecast at 62,000 metric tons (MT), down by about nine percent compared to Post’s MY2021/22 projection. This is mainly because of an annual three-month drought period (December-February) that negatively affects FFB yield, and consequently kernel yield.

Malaysia was the 25th largest export destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2021 and is a top prospect for exports of food and beverage ingredients because of its large and growing food processing industry. Food and beverages manufactured in Malaysia not only serve domestic consumers but are also exported to many neighboring countries. U.S. exporters of dairy products, fresh and processed potatoes, food-grade soy, processed fruit and juices, tree nuts and more have many opportunities to supply Malaysian industry which depends on imports for key ingredients and inputs, and in doing so will reach consumers across Malaysia and throughout Southeast Asia.

Post adjusted the Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 crude palm oil (CPO) production forecast down by 8,000 tons to 18.7 million tons. COVID-19 has caused acute labor shortages as the Government of Malaysia (GOM) halted the intake of new foreign workers indefinitely, while allowing foreign workers with expired work permits to return home, thus exaggerating the labor issues.

Post estimates Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) production in marketing year (MY) 2020/21 at 19

Post forecasts Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) production in marketing year (MY) 2019/20 at 19.7 million metric tons (MT), a decrease of 1.15 million MT compared to the previous year.

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This report provides information on the export certification requirements of the Government of Malaysia.