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Recovering from weather challenges in the first part of MY 24/25, Post forecasts MY 25/26 Malaysia palm oil production to increase to 18.5 million metric tons (MT).

FAS Kuala Lumpur (Post) projects a slight decrease in palm oil production in Market year (MY) 24/25 to 19.2 million metric tons (MT) on recent weather challenges and lower than average production in the beginning months of the MY. With palm oil at a premium to competing vegetable oils, Post estimates a decrease in exports of approximately 770 thousand MT for MY 24/25.

Post forecasts Malaysia’s palm oil production in MY 24/25 at 19.2 million metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 23/24 projections due to delayed effects of the El Niño season.

Post revises production estimates for MY 2023/24 down to 18.8 million tons accounting for hot and dry El Niño weather effects and limitations regarding labor. Top importing countries continue to drive demand and stocks drop to 1.83 million tons for MY 2023/24.

Post revised the forecasted palm oil production in marketing year MY2023/24 to 19.0 million metric tons (MT) and exports to 16.6 million MT. Contrary to expectation, the El Niño weather pattern in Malaysia has so far been weak to medium intensity.

Malaysia was the 26th-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2022, totaling nearly $1.1 billion in value, and is a top prospect for exports of food and beverage ingredients because of its large and growing food processing industry.

Post forecasts Malaysian palm oil production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 18.85 million metric tons (MT), up 702,000 MT from the previous year as the labor situation continues to improve.

Post maintains the projections for 2021/22 and updates MY 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook on production resulting from good weather conditions and an improved labor situation.

Post adjusts the Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 palm oil production forecast down to 18.2 million metric tons (MT), due to ongoing labor shortages. The MY2021/22 palm oil export estimate is revised to 16 million MT, a drop of 500,000 MT due to the estimated drop in production and resumption of Indonesian palm oil exports. Palm oil prices continue to fall as key buyers, India and China, prefer soybean oil to palm oil.

Malaysia was the 25th largest export destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2021 and is a top prospect for exports of food and beverage ingredients because of its large and growing food processing industry. Food and beverages manufactured in Malaysia not only serve domestic consumers but are also exported to many neighboring countries. U.S. exporters of dairy products, fresh and processed potatoes, food-grade soy, processed fruit and juices, tree nuts and more have many opportunities to supply Malaysian industry which depends on imports for key ingredients and inputs, and in doing so will reach consumers across Malaysia and throughout Southeast Asia.

Post forecasts Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at 18.5 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 646,000 MT compared to the previous year. This increase is lower than the USDA official estimate due to the...

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