Browse Data and Analysis

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2022/2024 soybean production at 875,000 metric tons (MT), the lowest level in sixteen years due to a historic drought affecting Uruguay and neighboring Argentina. As a result, Post reduces MY 2022/23 exports to 850,000 MT.

Dryness persists in scattered growing areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, there is still time for spring precipitation. Meanwhile, most eastern soybean producers await warmer temperatures to dry the heavy-to-adequate snow accumulation.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post’s soybean import forecast is 2.4 million MT, on Bangladesh rebounding from its current economic slowdown, while local soybean production remains flat.

Modest growth in the animal protein sector is expected to raise China’s soybean imports to 97 million metric tons (MMT) in Marketing Year (MY) 23/24. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) removal of COVID-related restriction in December 2022 is expected to boost overall oilseed consumption.

Indonesia palm oil production for 2023/24 is forecast at 46 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 3 percent from the previous year.

India’s rapeseed and mustard (rapeseed-mustard) production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) is forecast to drop slightly to 11.4 million metric tons, harvested from a record 9.2 million hectares following a favorable monsoon performance in the state of Rajasthan.

Bulgarian production of oilseed crops in marketing year (MY)2022/23 was at the same level as in MY2021/22 at 2.4 million metric tons (MMT), from 8 percent higher area harvested due to lower yields impacted by the summer heat and drought.

Turkey’s production of major oilseeds – sunflowerseeds, cottonseeds, and soybeans – in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is projected to decrease year-over-year because of pre-earthquake market dynamics.

The Korea oilseeds and products market is mature with limited annual change, reflecting stable consumer demand and stagnant domestic production.

Tunisian MY 2023/24 soybean imports are expected to reach 540,000 MT, compared to 510,000 MT in MY 2022/23. Tunisian olive oil exports are forecast to reach 200,000 MT in MY 2023/24, compared to 155,000 MT in MY 2022/23.

In 2022/23, Brazil is forecast to reap a record soybean crop of 153 million metric tons (MMT). Post maintained the forecast for planted area expansion of 43.3 million hectares (ha). Harvest lags behind schedule compared to previous years,

Canadian biofuel production remains below what Post estimates is needed to meet federal standards. Limited production makes it unlikely Canada will become a major player in the global ethanol market.