Browse Data and Analysis

Serbia’s overall grain production in MY 2024/25 had mixed results as its winter crops (wheat and barley) experienced bumper crops while corn, soybean and sunflower declined for the third year in a row.

Five months into MY2024/25 the situation and outlook for the UK grain sector is starting to become clearer. Significant wheat opening stocks have partly offset concern surrounding the second smallest wheat harvest since MY1999/2000, but even the current momentum in imports means the wheat balance is looking tight.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

Serbia’s Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 wheat area is forecast at 625,000 hectares (HA), 14 percent lower than the previous year. If the predicted yield of 5 MT/HA is achieved, wheat production is expected to reach 3.1 Million Metric Tons (MMT).

The UK is forecast to have one of the lowest grain crops on record in MY 2024/25 following challenging winter planting conditions, a very wet winter, and continued rains now disrupting crop management and spring plantings. Not only is this expected to significantly reduce the planted area, but also average yields.

The wheat planting area for MY2023/24 is estimated at 725,000 HA, some 17 percent higher than previous marketing year. Overall production is estimated to be 3.6 MMT, which represents a 12.5 increase compared to MY2022/23.

MY 2022/23 has been overshadowed by the developments in Ukraine. However, high UK grain prices supported planting despite high input prices, especially for fertilizer and fuel.

Serbian grain exports were significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports.

The 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2022 calendar year.

Persistent drought from May to August 2022 has damaged most of the spring crops in Serbia, mainly corn, soya, and fruits. Crop yields are forecast to decline by 20-30 percent, with total losses potentially reaching $ billion.

On April 20, the Government of Serbia (GoS) lifted its prohibition on the export of wheat, corn, flour, and refined sunflower oil. In its place, introduced monthly export quotas. On April 30, the GoS increased export quotas on wheat and wheat flour.

While the UK exited the shadow of Brexit and COVID-19 in marketing year (MY)2021/22 and put the 40-year low wheat crop of MY2020/21 behind it, the developments in Ukraine over the past few months have brought new uncertainties to the market.