Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Manila maintains its September 2023 forecast for rice and corn production and imports, but lowers its forecast slightly for wheat imports to 6.0 million metric tons.

Post slightly lowers the MY 2023/24 rice production forecast due to some minor aman season crop damage caused by a cyclone. Despite the reduced production, Post lowers the rice import forecast to 500 thousand MT, as the Government of Bangladesh maintains its high rice import tariff of 62.5 percent.

No significant changes are made to 2023/24 rice and wheat supply and demand forecasts. Private sector wheat import commitments of about 1.4 million tons underpin the 2 million ton 2023/24 wheat import forecast.

Planting of India’s rabi season (i.e., winter sown, spring harvested) crops is progressing somewhat slower than anticipated due to relatively dry soil moisture conditions.

Extreme weather conditions across the EU reduced grain production projections in MY 2023/24, although production is still anticipated to exceed MY 2022/23 levels. EU grain export expectations have deteriorated based on third country competition in...

Economic slowdowns in Indonesia’s export destination countries negatively affected its imports and consumption of wheat. Wheat imports for 2022/23 are revised down to 9.446 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous estimate of 9.526 MMT, reflecting...

India’s upcoming rabi (winter sown, spring harvested) crop acreages has been boosted to record levels on adequate 2022 monsoon rains in October and generally favorable weather conditions.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 6.2 million tons (including wheat flour), 1.3 million tons lower than USDA’s official volume because of smaller beginning stocks, larger domestic consumption and larger ending stocks.

New Zealand grain and feed import volumes in 2022 rose to the highest level ever, importing 3.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 13 percent from the previous year. National grain and feed demand continues to outstrip domestic supply by nearly double, with New Zealand producing 2.1 MMT in 2022, but consuming an estimated 5.8 MMT.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains its forecast wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 barley imports at 772 thousand metric tons, in line with the import volume seen last year.

FAS Bangkok revised its forecasts for MY2022/23 rice production higher to 20.2 million metric tons due to abundant water supplies and attractive farm-gate prices for off-season rice production. Thai rice exports in 2022 were higher than expected at 7...

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts are revised downward in marketing year MY 2022/23, while the wheat production estimate is increased to 3.6 MMT.