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Planting of India’s rabi season (winter sown, spring harvested) crops, which includes wheat, is progressing well under adequate soil moisture conditions and irrigation water availability. Market year (MY) 2022/2023 rice production is estimated higher...

FAS Manila maintains MY 2022/23 milled rice production at 11.975 million MT, as previously stated conditions such as diminished fertilizer application still hold. FAS Manila estimates rice imports at 3.8 million MT in response to recent trade data. FAS Manila estimates wheat imports at 5.8 million MT because of high prices and industry contacts’ observations that consumers have limited purchasing power.

Based on total commitments to date (imports plus outstanding purchases), the 2022/23 import forecast is reduced from 3 to 2.6 million tons. With the impact of the summer’s floods proving to be even worse than initially anticipated, the 2022/23 rice production estimate is decreased to 6 million tons. As a result of the expectations for lower domestic supplies, 2022/23 rice exports are also lowered to 3.6 million tons.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

The forecasts for MY2022/23 rice and corn production remain unchanged from the previous forecasts, as well as corn and wheat import demand.

Market uncertainty and price volatility in international markets led to flour mills importing more wheat in 2021/22 to hold them over in case of future shortages. Therefore, Post revises 2021/22 wheat imports to 11.3 MMT, up 12 percent from its previous estimate of 10.7 MMT.

Warm and dry summer conditions have taken a toll on EU grain production projections, especially in the case of corn. On a positive note, a surge in corn imports originating from Brazil and Ukraine, with the recent four-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have increased predictability of the EU grain market balance.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, production of grains is forecast to increase 30 percent year-over-year on an increase in area planted to spring wheat, durum, and oats, and on the assumption of improved soil moisture conditions resulting in higher yields. However, dry conditions persist in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan and many farmers are behind in their planting schedule, due to unfavorable planting conditions.

On April 14, the Ministry of Agriculture approved the “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” decree outlining wheat and wheat flour export restrictions valid until June 15, 2022.

Australia is expected to produce another big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting across most production regions of Australia bodes well for another big planted area of wheat and barley for MY 2022/23.

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.

Wheat production in Ethiopia for 2022/23 projected at a record level of 5.7 million MT while corn forecasted to 10.2 million MT. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has identified top priorities that can increase production and productivity of cereals through small and large-scale irrigation development, financing agricultural inputs, encouraging cluster farming, and reducing post-harvest loss.