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Post forecasts 2022/2023 corn production at a record 126 million metric tons (MMT) based on the growing demand and price for corn both in domestic and international market. This is up 8.6 percent on the 2021/2022 production estimated at 116 MMT.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

In marketing year 2022/23, wheat production is forecast up more than 50 percent from the previous year on increased acreage and higher yields due to improved soil moisture. Wheat exports are forecast to increase year-over-year on larger domestic supplies. Crop 2022 will be the first sizable crop in four years to compete for rail services with other sectors throughout an entire marketing year. Non-durum and durum wheat are expected to be of high quality, resulting in lower feed-grade wheat supplies.

On September 8, 2021, the Indian government raised its minimum support prices (MSP) for the select rabi (winter-planted) crops, including wheat. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) rice production at 122 million metric tons (MMT), down six percent compared to last year, due to unseasonal rains in October resulting in water lodging as the rice crop nears harvest.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, production of grains is forecast to increase 30 percent year-over-year on an increase in area planted to spring wheat, durum, and oats, and on the assumption of improved soil moisture conditions resulting in higher yields. However, dry conditions persist in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan and many farmers are behind in their planting schedule, due to unfavorable planting conditions.

On April 14, the Ministry of Agriculture approved the “Regarding export of certain goods from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan” decree outlining wheat and wheat flour export restrictions valid until June 15, 2022.

Australia is expected to produce another big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting across most production regions of Australia bodes well for another big planted area of wheat and barley for MY 2022/23.

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.

Wheat production in Ethiopia for 2022/23 projected at a record level of 5.7 million MT while corn forecasted to 10.2 million MT. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has identified top priorities that can increase production and productivity of cereals through small and large-scale irrigation development, financing agricultural inputs, encouraging cluster farming, and reducing post-harvest loss.

FAS-Nur-Sultan forecasts no significant change to wheat planted area for MY2022/23. Kazakhstan introduced wheat and wheat flour exports restrictions until June 15, 2022, however the government has made public assurances that it plans to supply regional markets given high wheat prices and production challenges in Ukraine and Russia.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) chart by region as of March 10, 2022, shows a normal vegetation index on the Mediterranean coast and a below normal NDVI in the high lands. The Algerian government again increased domestic procurement prices of grains from farmers to encourage production and grain collection.