Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts 2022/2023 corn production at a record 126 million metric tons (MMT) based on the growing demand and price for corn both in domestic and international market. This is up 8.6 percent on the 2021/2022 production estimated at 116 MMT.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

In marketing year 2022/23, wheat production is forecast up more than 50 percent from the previous year on increased acreage and higher yields due to improved soil moisture. Wheat exports are forecast to increase year-over-year on larger domestic supplies. Crop 2022 will be the first sizable crop in four years to compete for rail services with other sectors throughout an entire marketing year. Non-durum and durum wheat are expected to be of high quality, resulting in lower feed-grade wheat supplies.

On September 8, 2021, the Indian government raised its minimum support prices (MSP) for the select rabi (winter-planted) crops, including wheat. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) rice production at 122 million metric tons (MMT), down six percent compared to last year, due to unseasonal rains in October resulting in water lodging as the rice crop nears harvest.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

In early February, Ethiopia retendered for 400,000 metric tons of milling wheat after canceling an earlier-made contract because the supplier failed to provide the $10 million performance guarantee.

Russia has harvested its largest grain crop in nearly 40 years, exceeding 134 MMT according to official reports and moving Russia into the number one position of global wheat exporters.

Israel is almost completely dependent on imports to meet its grain and feed needs.

FAS/Astana’s wheat production estimate for Kazakhstan remains unchanged at 13.5 MMT in MY 2017/2018 (Oct/Sep), and the new forecast for MY2018/19 is down to 13.4 MMT due to a slightly smaller area....

Ghana is a net importer of both rice and wheat. Post estimates Ghana’s rice imports in 2017/18 at 550,000 MT, down slightly year-to-year due to growing domestic production.

MY 2017/18 (May-April) rice production is forecast down slightly to 32.65 million metric tons on lower Aman variety production caused by unexpected rain during the grain maturing stage.

South China’s Agricultural Imports Reach New Record…Upcoming opportunities for U.S. exporters to meet with South China wood product and bakery ingredient importers…