Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts 2022/2023 corn production at a record 126 million metric tons (MMT) based on the growing demand and price for corn both in domestic and international market. This is up 8.6 percent on the 2021/2022 production estimated at 116 MMT.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

In marketing year 2022/23, wheat production is forecast up more than 50 percent from the previous year on increased acreage and higher yields due to improved soil moisture. Wheat exports are forecast to increase year-over-year on larger domestic supplies. Crop 2022 will be the first sizable crop in four years to compete for rail services with other sectors throughout an entire marketing year. Non-durum and durum wheat are expected to be of high quality, resulting in lower feed-grade wheat supplies.

On September 8, 2021, the Indian government raised its minimum support prices (MSP) for the select rabi (winter-planted) crops, including wheat. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) rice production at 122 million metric tons (MMT), down six percent compared to last year, due to unseasonal rains in October resulting in water lodging as the rice crop nears harvest.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

While the United States had a $16 billion agricultural trade surplus with the rest of the world in 2015, it ran a record $12 billion trade deficit in farm and food products with the European Union.

South Africa should return to be a net exporter of corn in the 2016/17 MY of about 1.0 million tons on higher production.

According to the FAO, early prospects for Algeria’s 2016 winter wheat and coarse grains crops are favorable benefiting from recent widespread precipitation in eastern Algeria.

Colombian grain production could be impacted in 2016 as the period of drought from the El Niño weather phenomena transitions to rainier conditions of La Niña.

Post forecasts a decrease in corn production in Tanzania in the marketing year (MY) 2016/2017 due to unfavorable weather forecast by the Tanzania Meteorology Agency (TMA)...

Ethiopia is dealing with the worst drought to hit the country in decades.

Forecast MY2016/17 rice and corn production is expected to provide for larger exportable supplies in 2017.