Browse Data and Analysis

The Ministry of Agriculture has taken unprecedented steps to alleviate the soaring rice prices that have plagued Japan since the summer 2024 rice shortage.

FAS/Tokyo estimates lower wheat and barley production in Marketing Year (MY)2024/25 from the previous year as unfavorable weather conditions and disease outbreak have reduced yields in main production regions.

EU grain production in MY 2024/25 is expected to decline from last year’s levels due to a combination of smaller area planted to grains and lower yields affecting all grains except for barley and oats.

In MY 2024/25, EU grain production is anticipated to exceed the previous season’s levels and amount to 274 MMT. Excessive rain currently prevails in the EU’s northwest, hampering winter grains development and impeding spring planting operations.

FAS/Tokyo forecasts an increase in corn imports and consumption in MY2023/24 and MY2024/25 due to softening global prices and the rebound of the layer population following the recovery of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks.

Extreme weather conditions across the EU reduced grain production projections in MY 2023/24, although production is still anticipated to exceed MY 2022/23 levels. EU grain export expectations have deteriorated based on third country competition in...

FAS/Tokyo estimates lower MY2023/24 rice production in Japan as extremely high temperatures and little rain are expected to lower yield and quality.

Weather conditions ranging from excessive heat to cooler than average temperatures, and from drought to excessive moisture, have curbed MY 2023/24 EU winter grain production expectations.

In MY 2023/24, EU’s grain production is anticipated to reach 285 MMT, up from the 267 MMT registered the previous season, when a severe drought pushed yields down. Favorable initial crop development conditions are reported across the EU, although spring rains in the EU’s southwest will be critical to replenish soil moisture and allow for yields to bounce back to average levels.

On March 20, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW) and Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) added a waxy corn product to their lists of genome edited products not subject to regulations for genetically engineered food, feed, and biodiversity.

FAS/Tokyo projects reduced corn imports and feed consumption in MY2022/23 due to large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as well as increased competition from domestic feed rice, followed by a recovery of corn consumption in MY2023/24.

Warm and dry summer conditions have taken a toll on EU grain production projections, especially in the case of corn. On a positive note, a surge in corn imports originating from Brazil and Ukraine, with the recent four-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have increased predictability of the EU grain market balance.