Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts 2022/2023 corn production at a record 126 million metric tons (MMT) based on the growing demand and price for corn both in domestic and international market. This is up 8.6 percent on the 2021/2022 production estimated at 116 MMT.

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. The current high input cost environment and an upsurge in soybean plantings are deterring any bullish outlook in expanding corn area, despite record high commodity prices and three consecutive bumper crops. Higher farming input costs are escalating the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry.

On September 8, 2021, the Indian government raised its minimum support prices (MSP) for the select rabi (winter-planted) crops, including wheat. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) rice production at 122 million metric tons (MMT), down six percent compared to last year, due to unseasonal rains in October resulting in water lodging as the rice crop nears harvest.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

Russia has harvested its largest grain crop in nearly 40 years, exceeding 134 MMT according to official reports and moving Russia into the number one position of global wheat exporters.

Israel is almost completely dependent on imports to meet its grain and feed needs.

With new mature area entering full production and expectations for above trend yields, the 2017/18 palm oil production forecast is maintained at 38.5 million tons, a 5.5 percent increase from 2016/17.

Ghana is a net importer of both rice and wheat. Post estimates Ghana’s rice imports in 2017/18 at 550,000 MT, down slightly year-to-year due to growing domestic production.

MY 2017/18 (May-April) rice production is forecast down slightly to 32.65 million metric tons on lower Aman variety production caused by unexpected rain during the grain maturing stage.

Winter conditions have caused historic snowfall and record-low temperatures across East China.