Browse Data and Analysis

Unfavorable weather conditions in autumn 2024 resulted in decreased winter wheat area. Functioning maritime logistics in MY2023/24 and the first half of MY2024/25 kept shipping rates stable and have allowed Ukraine to quicky and cost efficiently export large volumes of commodities to distant markets.

Serbia’s overall grain production in MY 2024/25 had mixed results as its winter crops (wheat and barley) experienced bumper crops while corn, soybean and sunflower declined for the third year in a row.

In marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Turkiye’s wheat, barley, and corn production is forecast to contract year-over-year due to drier-than-normal weather conditions during the growing season.

Based on the final official harvest data, the Bulgarian corn crop fell to only 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25. This is the smallest corn crop since 2012, and was impacted by intense summer heat and drought followed by adverse rainy weather during the harvest.

In marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Turkiye’s wheat, barley, and corn production is forecast to contract year-over-year due to drier-than-normal weather conditions during the growing season.

Post’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 production estimate for all grains is 13 percent lower than its MY2023/24 estimate. With MY2024/25 beginning stocks at minimum levels, Post’s export estimates are 26 percent lower than its estimates for the previous MY.

Five months into MY2024/25 the situation and outlook for the UK grain sector is starting to become clearer. Significant wheat opening stocks have partly offset concern surrounding the second smallest wheat harvest since MY1999/2000, but even the current momentum in imports means the wheat balance is looking tight.

FAS/Sofia has revised downward its estimate for Bulgaria’s MY 2024/25 corn crop to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), which if realized would be the smallest crop in over a decade. This is due to severe summer heat and drought in July and in early August.

Ukraine’s marketing year (MY)2023/24 has concluded for wheat, barley, and rye, but is still ongoing for corn. Ukraine established a stable export corridor in the Black Sea, allowing its major marine ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny) to keep grain exports flowing at rates slightly higher than in MY2022/23.

Dry weather conditions between April and June in Turkiye’s grain-growing regions have resulted in decreased production forecasts for Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25. The Turkish government recently announced procurement prices for wheat and barley, as...

Bulgaria has enjoyed favorable weather so far in MY 2024/25 that has supported the positive development of both winter and spring grains. Currently, FAS/Sofia estimates the MY 2024/25 wheat crop at 6.9 million metric tons (MMT), slightly above last year's crop.

In MY 2024/25, EU grain production is anticipated to exceed the previous season’s levels and amount to 274 MMT. Excessive rain currently prevails in the EU’s northwest, hampering winter grains development and impeding spring planting operations.