Browse Data and Analysis

After four successive years of big cotton crop production in Australia, the forecast for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 falls to 4.1 million bales, 13 percent above the previous 10-year average.

Driven by a minor increase in area and assuming average yields, cotton production is expected to increase somewhat in 2025/26. With expectations for continued strong export demand, domestic use is forecast to grow modestly in 2025/26.

The cotton production forecast for 2024/25 has been revised downward to 5.2 million bales, with the area unchanged at 2 million hectares.

The 2024/25 cotton area estimate is revised downward to 2 million hectares due to a decrease in cultivation in key production areas of Punjab and Sindh. With the lower area, the production forecast is lowered to 5.55 million bales.

Cotton production in Australia is set for a fourth successive year of high production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, forecast at 5.5 million bales, which would be the third largest crop. The prospect of average rainfalls over the winter/spring period if realized would establish improved irrigation water availability for growers.

With expectations for no change in area, and assuming average yields, cotton production is forecast to decline in 2024/25. Given prospects for an increase in cotton textile exports, domestic use is forecast to increase in 2024/25.

No significant changes are made to the cotton supply and demand outlook. The 2023/24 cotton production forecast is unchanged at 6.5 million bales, total use is 10 million bales, and the import forecast remains 4.2 million bales.

The 2023/24 harvested area estimate is increased slightly based on information collected during recent field travel.

Cotton production is forecast to rebound 36 percent to 5.3 million bales in 2023/24. After the flood damaged 2022/23 crop, yields should return to trend, while better returns from competing crops will limit area expansion.

Cotton production in Australia is primed for a near record 5.8 million bales in MY 2023/24, stringing together three successive big crops starting from the record 5.85 million bales in MY 2021/22.

The 2022/23 cotton import forecast is reduced from 5 to 4.5 million bales due to the problems importers are facing in financing imports. Since December 2022, Pakistan’s shortage of dollars has hindered cotton importers’ ability to fulfill payment...

While output is unchanged, the 2022/23 harvested area is reduced to reflect the abandoned fields in key production areas of Sindh due to last summer’s flooding. The import forecast is increased to reflect the need to supplement the decline in domestic availability.