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In 2024, Argentina's dairy production faced significant challenges, primarily due to severe weather and economic issues which led to a projected 7 percent decline in milk output, estimated at 10,708 metric tons (MT).

Colombia is the largest South American market for U.S. agricultural products and the seventh-largest market for U.S. food and beverage exports globally. Since the U.S. – Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) was implemented in 2012, U.S. agricultural exports have grown by more than 235 percent to a record $3.7 billion in 2023.

Due to the severe drought, Post forecasts a slight decrease in dairy output, estimating a decline of just over one percent to 11,441,000 MT in volume by the end of 2023 compared to 2022. Projections for 2024 are complex as several factors could lead to a significant drop in production, particularly during the first half of the year.

Ukraine’s dairy cow inventory decreased drastically after the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. The industry had to reduce the number of animals due to supply chain disruptions for raw milk delivery to processing facilities. In 2022...

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

2022 Argentine dairy production is projected at the same level with respect to 2021 or with a drop of less than one percent year-on-year to 11.495,000 MT, due to abnormally dry and warm weather during the first half of the year which is expected to continue until the end of the year. Post forecasts Whole Milk Powder (WMP) production to rise to 245,000 MT in a recessionary domestic market with stable production compared to 2021, which would result in a higher export balance.

The prevailing extraordinary factors make it difficult to estimate exports for the rest of the year and the coming year. Other factors have been added to the recurrent volatility of the international dairy market.