Browse Data and Analysis

Post revises production estimates for MY 2023/24 down to 18.8 million tons accounting for hot and dry El Niño weather effects and limitations regarding labor. Top importing countries continue to drive demand and stocks drop to 1.83 million tons for MY 2023/24.

MY 2024/25 European Union oilseed production is forecast to decline by about one percent over the previous year with good yields. This forecast is based on the assumption of average growing conditions, lower, more average yields, but increased area which cannot make up for the lower yields.

Post revised the forecasted palm oil production in marketing year MY2023/24 to 19.0 million metric tons (MT) and exports to 16.6 million MT. Contrary to expectation, the El Niño weather pattern in Malaysia has so far been weak to medium intensity.

In MY 2023/24, the EU is facing a second consecutive short olive oil production crop.

Post forecasts Malaysian palm oil production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 18.85 million metric tons (MT), up 702,000 MT from the previous year as the labor situation continues to improve.

Post maintains the projections for 2021/22 and updates MY 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook on production resulting from good weather conditions and an improved labor situation.

Post adjusts the Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 palm oil production forecast down to 18.2 million metric tons (MT), due to ongoing labor shortages. The MY2021/22 palm oil export estimate is revised to 16 million MT, a drop of 500,000 MT due to the estimated drop in production and resumption of Indonesian palm oil exports. Palm oil prices continue to fall as key buyers, India and China, prefer soybean oil to palm oil.