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FAS Manila forecasts soybean meal imports in Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26 to increase by 3.1 percent to 3.35 million metric tons (MMT) compared to the previous MY, due to an increase in local feed demand from the broiler, layer, aquaculture, and pet food industries, along with the forecast gradual rebound of the swine industry.

Vietnam’s soybean crushers are expanding capacity with new production lines coming online in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.

Cambodia’s imports of soybean meal (SBM) and dried distillers grains (DDGs) in 2024 increased 6 percent year-on-year to 173 thousand metric tons (TMT), equivalent to 9 percent of Cambodia’s actual feed production.

Indonesia’s palm oil export estimates for 2024/25 are lowered due to the rollout of the new B40 Biodiesel mandate which is expected to raise domestic industrial palm demand by 2 percent.

Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel blending mandate program, which is expected to roll out in 2025, is projected to increase palm oil use by 3 percent to 22 million metric tons in 2024/25. Soybean consumption recovered in 2023/24 as soybean retail prices continue to decrease.

The Government of Vietnam (GVN) issued Decree 144/2024/ND-CP on November 1, 2024, lowering Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff rates on soybean meal to one percent from two percent. The Decree will enter into force on December 16, 2024.

Post maintains Vietnam’s soybean meal consumption forecast for the marketing year (MY) 2023/24 at 5.85 million tons, aligned with feed consumption. It expects consumption to rise to 6.1 million tons in 2024/25 due to increased demand for animal and aquafeed.

Indonesia palm oil exports are estimated to decline to 26.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023/24 on lower output and weaker demand from key destination markets. Post revised down 2023/24 palm oil production to 45.6 MMT as 2023’s El Nino led to much lower yields than previously anticipated.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 soybean meal imports to reach 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 4 percent attributed to the growing feed demand for livestock, poultry, and aquaculture. The projected 3 percent growth in soybean meal equivalent (SME) consumption coincides with the forecasted 3 percent increase in livestock production during the same period.

In relation to persistent rising food prices, Japan has seen a decline in overall vegetable oil consumption. Due to the more favorable crush margin for canola compared to soybeans, FAS/Tokyo forecasts a reduction in soybean imports and crush, while seeing an increase in rapeseed imports and crush for both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.

Vietnam’s economy is on the path to recovery. Post revises Vietnam’s MY2022/23 soybean meal consumption down to 5.65 MMT due to lower aquaculture feed consumption and forecasts an increase to 5.85 MMT in MY 2023/24.

Breaking with historical practice, Korean soybean crushers began operating below full capacity in mid-2023 and are forecast to further reduce crush volume into marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Soybean imports are forecast to recover slightly from MY 2023/24, but will still remain below average levels on sluggish crushing demand.