Browse Data and Analysis

A large portion of Australia’s winter cropping area is well-positioned, heading into the forecast year. In New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, early seasonal conditions are favorable, indicating potential for strong wheat and barley production.

New Zealand’s grain and feed sector is relatively small on a global scale, producing around 2.1 million metric tons (MMT) annually, well below the country’s total demand for feed, leading to the import of approximately 60 percent of its grain and feed needs.

Post forecasts MY 25/26 China corn production at 300 MMT, up 1.7 percent from MY 24/25, while corn imports are forecast at 8 MMT, lower than MY 23/24 levels due to China’s focus on grain self-sufficiency.

Mexico’s grain production outlook for marketing year (MY) 2025/2026 is higher for corn, rice, and sorghum due to higher local prices driving farmer planting decisions.

The Ministry of Agriculture has taken unprecedented steps to alleviate the soaring rice prices that have plagued Japan since the summer 2024 rice shortage.

The outlook for Mexican grain production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is lower for corn, wheat, and sorghum.

On October 28, 2024, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) published a revised “National Standard for Seed of Food Crops – Part 1: Cereals”, which will come into effect on October 1, 2025.

Feed demand in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is expected to recover slightly, with a projected total volume of 286.5 million metric tons (MMT). Corn is expected to dominate feed composition due to low prices, replacing wheat and old stock rice.

FAS/Tokyo estimates lower wheat and barley production in Marketing Year (MY)2024/25 from the previous year as unfavorable weather conditions and disease outbreak have reduced yields in main production regions.

The outlook for Mexican grain production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is higher year-on-year for corn, rice, and sorghum based on higher-than-average precipitation and a gradual recovery from exceptional drought conditions.

A tale of two is emerging for wheat and barley growers in Australia. Those in the eastern states have entered the MY 2024/25 planting season with good soil moisture and a particularly good fall break with widespread rains in the first week of April.

Higher feed demand from broiler, aquaculture, and ruminants will push total feed use slightly higher in MY2024/25 with greater corn inclusion into feed rations than previous years. MY2024/25 corn production is forecast larger than MY2023/24 with larger yields.