Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Sofia has revised downward its estimate for Bulgaria’s MY 2024/25 corn crop to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), which if realized would be the smallest crop in over a decade. This is due to severe summer heat and drought in July and in early August.

Kazakhstan is expected to have a bumper crop following last year’s troubled production. After heavy rains and flooding in May 2024 delayed planting, Kazakhstan’s primary growing regions have had near perfect weather, greatly raising the outlook for the upcoming fall harvest.

A tale of two is emerging for wheat and barley growers in Australia. Those in the eastern states have entered the MY 2024/25 planting season with good soil moisture and a particularly good fall break with widespread rains in the first week of April.

Ukraine’s marketing year (MY)2023/24 has concluded for wheat, barley, and rye, but is still ongoing for corn. Ukraine established a stable export corridor in the Black Sea, allowing its major marine ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny) to keep grain exports flowing at rates slightly higher than in MY2022/23.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 6.2 million tons (including wheat flour), 1.3 million tons lower than USDA’s official volume because of smaller beginning stocks, larger domestic consumption and larger ending stocks.

New Zealand grain and feed import volumes in 2022 rose to the highest level ever, importing 3.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 13 percent from the previous year. National grain and feed demand continues to outstrip domestic supply by nearly double, with New Zealand producing 2.1 MMT in 2022, but consuming an estimated 5.8 MMT.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains its forecast wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 barley imports at 772 thousand metric tons, in line with the import volume seen last year.

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts are revised downward in marketing year MY 2022/23, while the wheat production estimate is increased to 3.6 MMT.