Browse Data and Analysis

India is gearing up for a record wheat harvest in market year (MY) 2024/2025. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India's wheat production at 112.5 million metric tons (MMT), thanks to the timely and record plantings of wheat, which benefitted from favorable weather conditions from the time of planting through the reproductive growth stages.

Good vegetation conditions in the east and center regions in Algeria bode for a rebound in MY 2024/25 wheat harvest.

FAS/Tokyo forecasts an increase in corn imports and consumption in MY2023/24 and MY2024/25 due to softening global prices and the rebound of the layer population following the recovery of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks.

The outlook for Mexican grain production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is higher year-on-year for corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum based on farmer planting decisions on more average weather conditions and a gradual recovery from exceptional drought conditions.

With the development of several billion-dollar projects and nearly 30 million visitors a year, the future for U.S. grain exports is bright. Post anticipates Saudi rice imports to increase approximately five percent over the next several years due to expansions in the food service sector.

On February 29, 2024, India's Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW) released its Indian crop year (ICY) 2023/2024 (July-June) Second Advance Estimate. The MoAFW is forecasting grain production (excluding the summer crop) lower at 309.3 million metric tons (MMT) compared to 313.6 MMT last year on expected lower production of rice, corn, and other coarse grains, while wheat and barley production is forecast higher at new record levels.

Australia is set for a third consecutive record grain crop, and strong exports. Wheat production is estimated to have reached a record 37 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, while barley is estimated to achieve 13.5 MMT of production, the fourth largest on record.

Turkey’s production of wheat, corn, barley and rice in MY 2022/23 are all forecast higher compared to the previous year.

Corn production in MY2022/23 is revised up slightly based on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating a better harvest in the North China Plain which more than offset smaller yields in the northeast.

U.S. agricultural exports to China in fiscal year (FY) 2022 were $36.4 billion and surpassed the previous year’s record with China as the largest export market for the second consecutive year. Significantly higher agricultural prices and resilient demand helped drive exports above the previous year’s record despite lower volumes for most products.