Browse Data and Analysis

Since December 2022, rainfall across most of Iraq has been positive, expected to result in favorable yields and increased production for winter crops wheat and barley, with rice expected to rebound this summer for marketing year (MY) 2023/24.

Dashboard that demonstrates the scope of Black Sea grain and oilseed trade. Millions of tons of grain are shipped through these international waters each year, making the Black Sea region a major supplier of agricultural commodities worldwide.

MY 2022/23 has been overshadowed by the developments in Ukraine. However, high UK grain prices supported planting despite high input prices, especially for fertilizer and fuel.

Serbian grain exports were significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports.

FAS/Ottawa forecasts total production of wheat, corn, barley, and oats to increase one percent in MY 2023/24 from the previous year, assuming yields return closer to historic averages and a six percent increase in wheat production offsets production declines in other crops.

The Black Sea region is a significant supplier of agricultural commodities to the world. Over the past year, global grain and oilseed markets have been roiled by the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine.

Starting on May 1, Turkey’s import duties on wheat, barley, corn, and other grains will go from zero to 130 percent.

The 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2022 calendar year.

Dry and warm conditions across the EU, combined with a decline in corn plantings, are anticipated to reduce the bloc’s total grain production in MY 2022/23. Nevertheless, EU exports of grains are expected to remain stable and partially replace Black Sea Region origins in international grain markets. EU grain importing Member States will expand their purchases in alternative grain suppliers to make up for the limited access to Ukrainian grain and the shorter domestic availability.

The wheat and barley harvest is continuing in Turkey, approximately two weeks behind the normal harvest schedule this year. Wheat production is forecast at 17.25 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and barley production is forecast at 7.4 MMT in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. The first corn crop planting finished with total corn production forecast at 6.2 MMT.

Australia is expected to produce a third consecutive big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another broadly favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting and the early growth phase across most production regions bodes well for wheat and barley production in MY 2022/23.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 12.35 million tons, l.15 million tons lower than USDA’s official number as a result of lower production. The wheat and barley crops are suffering very dry weather. Barley exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 3.7 million tons, the same as in MY 2021-2022.