Browse Data and Analysis

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

FAS-Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023. After production declined due to hot and dry weather last MY, wheat production in MY 2022/2023 rebounded to an estimated 14.5 million metric tons (MMT).

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Australia is on the path to a third consecutive bumper grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. After another strong start to the planting season followed up by great rainfalls, there is ample moisture to carry the wheat and barley crops through the grain fill stage.

Venezuela's economic recovery continues, strengthening Venezuelans' purchasing power and consumption. As a result, in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat consumption is revised up 4 percent compared to USDA's official forecast, while imports will increase to 1.3 million MT. The United States remains the largest supplier of hard red winter wheat to Venezuela.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Bulgaria expects to harvest a corn crop of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), 18 percent lower than in MY 2021/22. The decrease can be attributed to nine percent decline in area planted, yields severely impacted by the summer drought and heat, and higher pest infestation.

Post forecasts China's MY2022/23 feed and residual to decrease one percent from MY2021/22. Corn production for MY2022/23 is forecast at 270 MMT, 4 MMT lower than USDA’s official forecast and 2.5 MMT lower than MY2021/22 due to lower planting area and yield losses caused by excessive rains in the northeast.

FAS Manila revised MY 2022/23 milled rice production downward to 11.975 million MT both because of a 3 percent expected reduction in yields as soaring fertilizer prices result in significantly reduced application and because of the effects of Typhoon Noru (Local name: Karding).