Browse Data and Analysis

In 2024, Kenya’s avocado production declined by 11.2 percent to 562 thousand metric tons (TMT), driven by reduced rainfall.

The cold and wet winter of 2023 provided favorable conditions for deciduous fruit and aided in improved production volumes. Production is expected to grow and improve in quality from MY 2022/23 when fruit was affected by hail damage.

Post expects Morocco’s Tangerine/mandarin production for MY 2023/24 to reach an estimated 950,000 metric tons, increasing 3 percent over MY 2022/23, orange production should increase by 5 percent over the previous year to 820,000 MT, while lemon/lime production will reach 40,000 MT.

South African production of lemons is forecast to rise by 10 percent in MY 2023/24 on sufficient irrigation and greater input investments by producers, while tangerine/mandarins production is forecast to increase by 4 percent.

Despite industry consolidation resulting in limited expansion, deciduous fruit production is expected to grow marginally as plantings come into production.

South African production of oranges and lemons is projected to decrease in MY 2022/23 due to stagnated production area and a return to normal yield.

Post has adjusted production numbers for tangerines/mandarins and oranges based on the latest data obtained from the Moroccan citrus industry. MY 2022/23 export figures are revised based on trade to date data.

The production of apples, pears and table grapes is estimated to decrease slightly in the 2022/23 Marketing Year (MY), based largely on stagnated production area and a return to normal yields following record production for all three commodities.

Morocco’s MY 2022/2023 citrus production is expected to fall 35 percent from the previous season due to water scarcity and unfavorable weather. Tangerine and mandarin production are expected to decrease by 34 percent from the previous year to 900,000 MT, while orange production should fall by 35 percent to 750,000 MT.

The area under citrus cultivation in South Africa has grown steadily over the past decade, driven by ongoing investments on relatively high earnings from export markets. As a result, South Africa is set for record citrus exports of 2.7 million tons in marketing year 2021/22.

Morocco has become the 15th-largest fruit exporter in the world by value. According to the most recent estimates (2019) by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 66 percent of its land area is devoted to agriculture, with more than 7 percent devoted to fruit production.

The area under apple, pears, and table grape cultivation in South Africa has grown steadily over the past decade, driven by ongoing investments into the deciduous fruit sector on relatively high earnings from export markets. However, the expansion in apple, pears, and table grape production is expected to alleviate in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, despite the production of record crops in MY 2021/22.