Browse Data and Analysis

The cold and wet winter of 2023 provided favorable conditions for deciduous fruit and aided in improved production volumes. Production is expected to grow and improve in quality from MY 2022/23 when fruit was affected by hail damage.

Following nearly exponential growth in the last decade, Peru's blueberry export volume fell in 2023 as a result of warmer weather conditions, especially in the principal production areas of northern Peru, which severely limited flowering between March and October.

FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 545,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (March 2024 to February 2025), a decrease of one percent compared to the previous year.

South African production of lemons is forecast to rise by 10 percent in MY 2023/24 on sufficient irrigation and greater input investments by producers, while tangerine/mandarins production is forecast to increase by 4 percent.

Grape production in Peru is forecast to reach 775,500 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (October-September), an increase of one percent compared to the previous year.

Despite industry consolidation resulting in limited expansion, deciduous fruit production is expected to grow marginally as plantings come into production.

South African production of oranges and lemons is projected to decrease in MY 2022/23 due to stagnated production area and a return to normal yield.

FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 550,000 metric tons (MT), with exports expected to reach 222,000 MT for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (March 2023 to February 2024).

The production of apples, pears and table grapes is estimated to decrease slightly in the 2022/23 Marketing Year (MY), based largely on stagnated production area and a return to normal yields following record production for all three commodities.

With ideal conditions for high productivity and a nearly year-round harvest, Peru's blueberry production continues to rise. FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian blueberry production for marketing year (MY) 2022 (March-April) to reach a record 280,000 metric tons (MT), with exports expected to reach 270,000 MT. In the last ten years, Peru has built a blueberry industry from 80 hectares in 2012 to about 17,500 hectares currently in production.

FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 550,000 metric tons (MT), with exports expected to reach 200,000 MT for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (March 2023 to February 2024). Lower profitability driven by labor cost increases, fertilizer scarcity, erratic weather, increased transportation costs, and container shortages will negatively impact production and exports.

The area under citrus cultivation in South Africa has grown steadily over the past decade, driven by ongoing investments on relatively high earnings from export markets. As a result, South Africa is set for record citrus exports of 2.7 million tons in marketing year 2021/22.