Browse Data and Analysis

On March 31, 2025, the Government of Vietnam (GVN) issued Decree 73/2025/ND-CP, reducing the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) import tariff rates on corn, soybean meal, ethanol, frozen chicken drumsticks, in-shell pistachios, almonds, fresh apples, cherries, and raisins. The decree takes effect immediately.

Mexico’s 2025 avocado production is forecast at 2.75 million metric tons (MMT), a three percent increase over 2024 on strong export demand. Exports are forecast at 1.34 MMT in 2025, up five percent year-on-year.

Despite challenges related to the slow economy, citrus production in China for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is expected to continue to grow, outperforming other fruit categories.

Korea's total citrus production is forecast at 570,000 metric tons (MT), a 2.1 percent decline from the previous marketing year (582,000 MT), driven by lower yield for open-field tangerines, and a slight reduction in planted area. As the prices of other domestic and imported fruits rise, consumption of relatively cheap citrus - both imported and domestic - is expected to remain strong.

In market year (MY) 2023/24, total citrus production in Mexico is expected down slightly by 1.5 percent versus the previous year, driven primarily by a reduction in fresh lime production. While fresh orange production is projected up fractionally, increasingly erratic conditions such as prolonged drought and high temperatures affected the main producing regions in the current year and reduced harvest quality.

Already reeling from high fruit prices, Korean consumers will face another year of expensive, lower-quality apples. Korea’s apple production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 fell 25 percent year-on-year after orchards suffered a series of adverse weather events in 2023.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post estimates an increase in fresh lemon production. This upward revision is attributed to producers' expectations of favorable weather conditions. Post’s MY 2022/23 production estimate is revised up 12 percent due to less severe drought conditions than initially expected.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post projects lemon production to grow by 6.7 percent and reach 175,000 metric tons (MT) due to high profits and an increase in area planted.

FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 545,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (March 2024 to February 2025), a decrease of one percent compared to the previous year.

Japan’s MY 2022/23 mandarin production recovers from last year’s historically lowest production. However, overall Japanese citrus planted area and production is on a downward trend amidst aging farmers, labor shortages, and a lack of successors for running farms.

Post expects Morocco’s Tangerine/mandarin production for MY 2023/24 to reach an estimated 950,000 metric tons, increasing 3 percent over MY 2022/23, orange production should increase by 5 percent over the previous year to 820,000 MT, while lemon/lime production will reach 40,000 MT.

South African production of lemons is forecast to rise by 10 percent in MY 2023/24 on sufficient irrigation and greater input investments by producers, while tangerine/mandarins production is forecast to increase by 4 percent.