Browse Data and Analysis

Milk production for 2024 in Australia is forecast to increase by 0.6 percent to 8.50 million metric tons (MMT) after stabilizing in 2023 at an estimated 8.45 MMT from previous years of declining production. The forecast is amid an El Niño weather pattern in late 2023, likely to continue into 2024.

Due to the severe drought, Post forecasts a slight decrease in dairy output, estimating a decline of just over one percent to 11,441,000 MT in volume by the end of 2023 compared to 2022. Projections for 2024 are complex as several factors could lead to a significant drop in production, particularly during the first half of the year.

On October 25, 2023, China notified the National Food Safety Standard for Raw Milk No. 1 Amendment to the World Trade Organization (WTO) under G/SPS/N/CHN/1288.

On October 25, 2023, China notified the National Food Safety Standard for Modified Milk to the World Trade Organization (WTO) under G/SPS/N/CHN/1287. The proposed date of entry into force is to be determined. Comments may be submitted to China’s SPS...

Domestic milk production is forecast to decrease to 2 million tons in 2023. 2022 milk production is projected to drop to 2.01 million tons after reaching 2.34 million tons in 2021. Milk production is expected to show a decreasing trend due to the decreasing number of dairy farms and falling demand for milk.

FAS/Canada projects modest growth for milk and cheese production in 2023, as consumption remains stable, and the market is partially supplied by rising import volumes following implementation of Canada’s various trade agreements. Butter production is forecast to grow in 2023, as stocks remain low, depleted by sustained strong consumption.

FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India’s marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) fluid milk production to increase by nearly two percent to 207 million metric tons (MMT) assuming normal 2023 southwest monsoon (June-September) and weather conditions ensuring sufficient availability of fodder.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

Even as Mexico's consumers face high core and food inflation, post sees both overall dairy production and imports rising in 2023. Mexico’s milk and cheese production is forecast to rise in 2023 due to increased investments in dairy operations in key producing areas.

Algeria is one of the leading consumers and importers of dry milk powder worldwide. The government has prioritized improving Algeria’s dairy domestic production to reduce reliance on imports. In line with this strategy, Algeria imported less milk powder in CY2021.

Fluid milk production will be up slightly in 2023 as a greater number of heifers enter milk production. Demand for dairy products in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional food service industries will be pushed by an influx of foreign tourists, although surplus drinking milk will still be diverted to further processing into butter and non-fat dry milk for which ending stocks will finish higher in 2022.

Taiwan MY 2023 fluid milk production is forecast to increase to 465,000 MT. During the supply chain disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, milk imports declined by 17 percent in MY 2021, pushing local producers to exceed production expectations to meet high demand.