Browse Data and Analysis

Domestic milk production is forecast to decrease to 2 million tons in 2023. 2022 milk production is projected to drop to 2.01 million tons after reaching 2.34 million tons in 2021. Milk production is expected to show a decreasing trend due to the decreasing number of dairy farms and falling demand for milk.

FAS/Canada projects modest growth for milk and cheese production in 2023, as consumption remains stable, and the market is partially supplied by rising import volumes following implementation of Canada’s various trade agreements. Butter production is forecast to grow in 2023, as stocks remain low, depleted by sustained strong consumption.

FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India’s marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) fluid milk production to increase by nearly two percent to 207 million metric tons (MMT) assuming normal 2023 southwest monsoon (June-September) and weather conditions ensuring sufficient availability of fodder.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

Even as Mexico's consumers face high core and food inflation, post sees both overall dairy production and imports rising in 2023. Mexico’s milk and cheese production is forecast to rise in 2023 due to increased investments in dairy operations in key producing areas.

Algeria is one of the leading consumers and importers of dry milk powder worldwide. The government has prioritized improving Algeria’s dairy domestic production to reduce reliance on imports. In line with this strategy, Algeria imported less milk powder in CY2021.

Fluid milk production will be up slightly in 2023 as a greater number of heifers enter milk production. Demand for dairy products in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional food service industries will be pushed by an influx of foreign tourists, although surplus drinking milk will still be diverted to further processing into butter and non-fat dry milk for which ending stocks will finish higher in 2022.

Taiwan MY 2023 fluid milk production is forecast to increase to 465,000 MT. During the supply chain disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, milk imports declined by 17 percent in MY 2021, pushing local producers to exceed production expectations to meet high demand.

After an EU-wide drought in 2022, the EU27 dairy herd is forecast to drop below 20 million head in 2023. This will lead to a continued decrease in milk production and deliveries for factory use despite higher farm gate milk prices. As EU dairy processors continue to favor cheese production, the decrease in milk deliveries will be at the expense of butter and non-fat dry milk (NFDM), and, to a lower extent, lower whole milk powder (WMP) production, despite high world market prices.

In marketing year (MY) 2022, rainfall during the winter was abundant favoring pasture production in the southern regions of Los Lagos and Los Rios. As a result, Chilean production of milk powders increased significantly in recent months, and are expected to remain high during the remainder of the marketing year.

FAS Manila forecasts demand for dairy products to increase 3 percent in 2023, the same percentage of increase as 2022, with a total demand of 3 million metric tons (MT) in liquid milk equivalent (LME). The Philippines imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement, as domestic production cannot meet demand. Following demand increases, dairy imports will recover in 2023 as the economy improves, most of the population is vaccinated, and customers return to restaurants.

On September 26, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a clarification notice to its earlier notification F. No. 1829/Health Certificate/FSSAI/Imports (2021). The FSSAI clarification notice is in response to World Trade Organization (WTO) members having commented on the FSSAI Order of August 8, 2022, referencing the earlier FSSAI Notification No. 1829/Health Certificate/FSSAI/Imports (2021), that specify the requirements for health certificates and their format for milk and milk products, pork and pork products, and fish and fish products.