Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts that chicken meat production will increase by three percent to 1.65 million tons in Marketing Year (MY) 2025 as a result of a strengthening domestic sector. Post raises the 2024 production estimate by 6 percent to 1.59 million tons as the industry has rebounded from the 2023 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak.

The UAE’s chicken meat production is forecast to grow by 17 percent in 2025, supported by governmental initiatives such as feed subsidies and technological investments. Consumption is expected to rise by 6 percent due to population growth, increased consumer spending, and a thriving tourism sector.

Although extension of anti-dumping duties imposed on frozen bone-in poultry portions from the US would typically mean business as usual as these duties are rebated under the tariff rate quota, a current de-facto restriction on applying general tariff rebates to poultry imported under the TRQ makes the announcement more concerning than usual.

UAE chicken meat imports are forecast to increase in 2024 as domestic production expansion is unable to fulfill rising demand. Brazil’s market share is expected to continue to grow.

The Competition Commission of South Africa, and independent body under the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition announced the launch of a comprehensive market inquiry that will seek to determine if the South African poultry industry is impeding, distorting, or restricting competition in a way that violates the South African Competition Act.

On January 26, 2024, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC) together with the International Trade Administration (ITAC) announced the decision to implement a 25 percent rebate on bone-in cuts and 30 percent rebate on boneless chicken of imported chicken.

The Animal Health Directorate in the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) released a progress report on the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that was first detected in the Western Cape Province in April 2023.

On October 25, 2023, the South African Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) announced that the ban on poultry imports from 27 US States have been lifted.

South Africa's steady growth in poultry production is expected to continue in 2024 as an increasingly vertically integrated industry capitalizes on lower feed prices driven by strong maize and soy production.

The March 2023 Essential Food Price Monitoring Report published by South Africa’s Competition Commission provided a deep dive into the poultry value chain.

Numerous fast-food restaurants in South Africa have announced supply shortages of bone-in chicken products, with KFC closing 70 restaurants. Although loadshedding, or rolling blackouts, have been blamed for the shortage, record-low imports in the later half of 2022 driven by high tariffs are certainly a significant factor.

Imports of chicken meat and products in 2023 are forecast to increase to 418,000 metric tons as the UAE’s expanding economy, population, and concomitant building boom fuel higher demand and thus consumption. Transshipments or reexports are playing a growing role in the Arabian Gulf poultry trade and have risen by 74 percent over the last four years.