Browse Data and Analysis

Australian beef production and exports are forecast to reach record levels in 2025, building on the record export results achieved in 2024. This situation is similar to 2014 and 2015, when strong U.S. demand was driven by herd rebuilding leading to similar peaks in beef production and exports for Australia.

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak that has impacted South Africa since 2021 continues to spread in some parts of the country despite government control efforts.

South Africa’s dairy industry is likely to grow in the future due to improving economic factors, despite suffering from many weather and disease related challenges in the past five years. This growth may provide opportunities for dairy genetics exporters.

Milk production for 2025 in Australia is forecast to increase by 1.1 percent to 8.8 million metric tons (MMT) after strong growth of 2.7 percent for 2024 at an estimated 8.7 MMT from previous years of declining production.

Porcine semen is now eligible to be exported to South Africa from the United States.

In 2024, Australian beef supply has surged and is projected to reach the second-highest production level on record in 2025. This anticipated expansion follows a major turning point in 2024, with production estimated to increase by 14 percent from 2023 and 34 percent from the 2022 low.

Post forecasts that chicken meat production will increase by three percent to 1.65 million tons in Marketing Year (MY) 2025 as a result of a strengthening domestic sector. Post raises the 2024 production estimate by 6 percent to 1.59 million tons as the industry has rebounded from the 2023 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak.

Milk production in Australia for 2024 is estimated to increase, for the first time since 2020, by 3.3 percent to 8.75 million metric tons (MMT). Industry confidence is elevated by high milk prices for dairy farmers over recent years and, also lower feed and fertilizer prices and broadly good seasonal conditions in 2024.

Previously exporters and importers of live animals and genetic materials only required a permit, but a new directive requires prior authorization from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development’s Animal Production Directorate before applying for the permit.

Although extension of anti-dumping duties imposed on frozen bone-in poultry portions from the US would typically mean business as usual as these duties are rebated under the tariff rate quota, a current de-facto restriction on applying general tariff rebates to poultry imported under the TRQ makes the announcement more concerning than usual.

Australian beef supply is forecast to climb after the herd rebuild period ends. The marked slowdown in the growth of the national herd is expected to drive a higher female slaughter rate, increase the overall supply of cattle for slaughter, and boost live cattle and beef exports in 2024.

The Competition Commission of South Africa, and independent body under the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition announced the launch of a comprehensive market inquiry that will seek to determine if the South African poultry industry is impeding, distorting, or restricting competition in a way that violates the South African Competition Act.