Browse Data and Analysis

Favorable pricing and weather conditions for New Zealand cattle farmers have resulted in a retention of finishing cattle on farms and less slaughter in 2024. Farm operations face challenges with continuing financial pressure such as high debt, increasing on-farm inflation, and declining farmgate margins.

Starting in 2025, Taiwan will eliminate tariffs on liquid milk imports from New Zealand. Taiwan dairy farmers are worried about the future, as the primary dairy product in Taiwan is fresh milk, with only a small portion used for other dairy beverages or products.

New Zealand fluid milk production is forecasted to be 21.3 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2025 market year (MY).

FAS/Wellington 2025 market year production forecast would be the highest annual production on record, If realized. In addition, post is forecasting that beef and veal exports in 2025 to also be the highest volume for New Zealand in a single year.

Taiwan issued a new WTO notification (G/TBT/N/TPKM/541) on June 7, 2024, amending the labeling regulations for liquid milk, which will mainly impact the nomenclature of liquid milk from the United States. Currently, liquid milk from the United States can be labeled as "fresh milk" if it complies with CNS regulation.

New Zealand fluid milk production is forecasted to be 21.2 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2024 market year (MY). This is a decrease on the previous 5-year average of ~21.6 MMT, reflecting the decreasing herd numbers and the short-term effects of the following: El Niño weather pattern, softening revenue, high cost of debt servicing, and challenging feed and fertilizer prices.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

Following a gradual decline in the national cattle herd over the previous years, breeding cow numbers for beef and dairy are looking to stabilize in 2024. At the end of 2023, a new national coalition government was elected.

On September 26 and September 28, 2023, Taiwan notified the WTO that it was invoking volume-based special safeguards on imports of other chicken cuts and pork belly, respectively.

New Zealand fluid milk production in 2024 is forecast to decline by 0.5 percent to 21.4 million metric tons (MMT). This situation results from recent decreases in farm gate milk price forecasts, as well as rising interest rates, which are expected to...

In MY 2023, Taiwan’s liquid milk production is estimated to reach 474,000 tons and is forecast to see a slight increase in MY 2024. However, the long-term liquid milk outlook is complex and subject to unstable dynamics due to New Zealand dairy products soon to have unlimited tariff-free access to the Taiwan market in 2025.

Since reaching peak numbers in 2016, the New Zealand national cattle herd has been gradually declining, and this is expected to continue in 2024.