Browse Data and Analysis

Domestic milk production is forecast to decrease to 2 million tons in 2023. 2022 milk production is projected to drop to 2.01 million tons after reaching 2.34 million tons in 2021. Milk production is expected to show a decreasing trend due to the decreasing number of dairy farms and falling demand for milk.

FAS/Canada projects modest growth for milk and cheese production in 2023, as consumption remains stable, and the market is partially supplied by rising import volumes following implementation of Canada’s various trade agreements. Butter production is forecast to grow in 2023, as stocks remain low, depleted by sustained strong consumption.

Since September 8, 2022, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) has auctioned 127,100 metric tons (MT) of frozen pork reserves as an attempt to curb rising prices. However, despite numerous auctions and other PRC market guidance, domestic prices continue to rise.

FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India’s marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) fluid milk production to increase by nearly two percent to 207 million metric tons (MMT) assuming normal 2023 southwest monsoon (June-September) and weather conditions ensuring sufficient availability of fodder.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

Imports of chicken meat and products in 2023 are forecast to increase to 418,000 metric tons as the UAE’s expanding economy, population, and concomitant building boom fuel higher demand and thus consumption. Transshipments or reexports are playing a growing role in the Arabian Gulf poultry trade and have risen by 74 percent over the last four years.

Post forecasts an increase in cattle production by 2.8 percent in 2022 and one percent in 2023, driven by global demand, elevated beef prices, and a general trend of expansion in the sector. Nevertheless, increasing production costs, especially feed prices, inflation, and unstable weather are expected to pose challenges to cattle ranchers.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has adversely impacted the global economy, and Egypt too has felt the wave of effects. Russia’s war on Ukraine has relentlessly disrupted international trade of grains and soybeans as well as other commodities pounding a global economy that had since been improving robustly from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Even as Mexico's consumers face high core and food inflation, post sees both overall dairy production and imports rising in 2023. Mexico’s milk and cheese production is forecast to rise in 2023 due to increased investments in dairy operations in key producing areas.

Algeria is one of the leading consumers and importers of dry milk powder worldwide. The government has prioritized improving Algeria’s dairy domestic production to reduce reliance on imports. In line with this strategy, Algeria imported less milk powder in CY2021.

Fluid milk production will be up slightly in 2023 as a greater number of heifers enter milk production. Demand for dairy products in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional food service industries will be pushed by an influx of foreign tourists, although surplus drinking milk will still be diverted to further processing into butter and non-fat dry milk for which ending stocks will finish higher in 2022.

Taiwan MY 2023 fluid milk production is forecast to increase to 465,000 MT. During the supply chain disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, milk imports declined by 17 percent in MY 2021, pushing local producers to exceed production expectations to meet high demand.