Browse Data and Analysis

A larger than average crop this year caused Kazakhstan to introduce export subsidies for shipping wheat to Europe and other Central Asian countries effective through September 1, 2025.

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

Sri Lanka’s economic situation is improving and key agricultural inputs like fertilizers and agrochemicals are available in the market although they remain expensive. Rice production is expected to continue on a recovery path. Rice imports are...

India is on course to hit its third record wheat crop in MY 2025/2026 forecast on higher planting and optimal growing conditions.

Despite heavy rains in March, the 2025 wheat crop will be below the 10-year average. Production will be slightly higher than the drought impacted levels of 2024, but hot and dry weather early in the growing season and less area planted will limit total wheat production.

For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Post forecasts lower rice imports than in MY 2024/25, assuming higher production based on favorable weather. Demand for wheat continues to increase and Post forecasts slightly higher imports for MY 2025/26 to align with demand.

Kazakhstan’s total wheat production has been revised up to 16.5 million metric tons as good weather during last year’s summer vegetative period resulted in a larger than average crop. Barley production estimates are raised slightly to 3.8 million metric tons.

The Government of Morocco continues to subsidize bread wheat imports based on a fixed flat-rate premium.

There are no significant changes to the 2024/25 wheat production, supply and demand outlook. Due to slight reductions in both area and yield, the 2024/25 rice production estimate is revised down to 9.5 million tons.

For the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Post lowers rice harvested area and production to 11.4 million hectares and 36.6 million metric tons (MT), respectively, due to an estimated loss of around 300,000 hectares of aman season rice from two consecutive floods in August and October 2024.

On September 25, 2024, India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW) released final production estimates of major crops for Indian crop year (ICY) 2023/2024 (July-June). MoAFW estimated grain production at a record 332.3 million metric tons (MMT) due to record production of rice and wheat.

Kazakh farmers are finishing harvest, having dealt with rains in early September and cold night temperatures in October that reduced overall quality but only marginally affected quantity.