Browse Data and Analysis

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

Corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum consumption is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 due to the appreciation of the naira, slowing food price inflation, and macroeconomic stabilization.

There are no significant changes to the 2024/25 wheat production, supply and demand outlook. Due to slight reductions in both area and yield, the 2024/25 rice production estimate is revised down to 9.5 million tons.

Imports of wheat, rice, and corn in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 are estimated to increase as the economy stabilizes, inflation decreases, and the government implements a temporary zero-duty import policy for the afore-mentioned commodities until December 31.

No significant changes were made to the 2024/25 wheat supply and demand forecasts. Wheat imports and exports remain banned. The 2024/25 rice production forecast is unchanged at a record 10 million tons.

Reflecting recently released government of Pakistan official data, the 2024/25 wheat production estimate is increased to a record 31.4 million tons.

Given record area and prospects for good yields, wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to be a record 28.8 million tons. Due to an anticipated increase in area, 2024/25 rice production is also forecast to set a record.

Due to rising insecurity in grain producing regions and higher input costs affecting planting decisions, corn and rice production is expected to decline in marketing year (MY) 2024/25.

In January 2024, Nigeria approved the commercial release of four TELA maize varieties, which have been genetically engineered for improved insect-resistance and drought-tolerance. In addition to South Africa, Nigeria has become the second country in...

Corn exports in 2023/24 are forecast to reach 1.5 million tons. The good harvest and decrease in poultry feed demand resulted in a large exportable surplus at competitive prices. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka are the top destinations. Feed consumption in 2023/24 is reduced from 7.7 to 6.6 million tons.

No significant changes are made to 2023/24 rice and wheat supply and demand forecasts. Private sector wheat import commitments of about 1.4 million tons underpin the 2 million ton 2023/24 wheat import forecast.

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2023/24 wheat consumption to decrease to 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) or 10 percent from USDA's official estimate.