Browse Data and Analysis

Serbia’s overall grain production in MY 2024/25 had mixed results as its winter crops (wheat and barley) experienced bumper crops while corn, soybean and sunflower declined for the third year in a row.

Serbia’s Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 wheat area is forecast at 625,000 hectares (HA), 14 percent lower than the previous year. If the predicted yield of 5 MT/HA is achieved, wheat production is expected to reach 3.1 Million Metric Tons (MMT).

The wheat planting area for MY2023/24 is estimated at 725,000 HA, some 17 percent higher than previous marketing year. Overall production is estimated to be 3.6 MMT, which represents a 12.5 increase compared to MY2022/23.

Since December 2022, rainfall across most of Iraq has been positive, expected to result in favorable yields and increased production for winter crops wheat and barley, with rice expected to rebound this summer for marketing year (MY) 2023/24.

Serbian grain exports were significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports.

Persistent drought from May to August 2022 has damaged most of the spring crops in Serbia, mainly corn, soya, and fruits. Crop yields are forecast to decline by 20-30 percent, with total losses potentially reaching $ billion.

On May 17, the Government of Iraq (GOI) announced higher purchase prices for locally-produced wheat in an effort to incentivize farmers to market their crop to the Ministry of Trade. On June 8, the GOI also passed a food security bill that allows the government to use public funds to meet urgent food needs, including issuing tenders to import wheat.

On April 20, the Government of Serbia (GoS) lifted its prohibition on the export of wheat, corn, flour, and refined sunflower oil. In its place, introduced monthly export quotas. On April 30, the GoS increased export quotas on wheat and wheat flour.

Serbia is closely following the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, especially because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports.

Continued drought and water shortages is affecting economic activities in Iraq, especially grain production in 2022. The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture cut agricultural cropping in irrigated areas to 50 percent less than the previous year due to shortages in surface water.

Very high temperatures starting in May and low precipitation did not have a negative effect on wheat and barley production in Serbia, while corn yield will be reduced by at least 20 percent.

The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture recently released its 2021 plans for total planted area of summer crops – corn and rice – following approval by the Ministry of Water Resources.