Browse Data and Analysis

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

FAS (Post) forecasts Venezuelan market year (MY) 2025/2026 corn production to reach 1.2 million metric tons (MMT), a 14 percent decrease year-on-year due to a significant drop in seed availability for the summer planting season.

There are no significant changes to the 2024/25 wheat production, supply and demand outlook. Due to slight reductions in both area and yield, the 2024/25 rice production estimate is revised down to 9.5 million tons.

FAS estimates Venezuela corn production at 1.36 million metric tons for the new market year (MY) 2024/2025 on a planted area of 350,000 hectares. Significant economic uncertainty persists following the July 28, 2024, presidential election, and higher inflation and a scarcity of U.S. dollars will likely inhibit increased corn acreage and limit yields.

No significant changes were made to the 2024/25 wheat supply and demand forecasts. Wheat imports and exports remain banned. The 2024/25 rice production forecast is unchanged at a record 10 million tons.

Reflecting recently released government of Pakistan official data, the 2024/25 wheat production estimate is increased to a record 31.4 million tons.

In market year (MY) 2024/2025, FAS (Post) forecasts Venezuela’s corn production to reach 1.36 million metric tons (MMT), 5 percent higher year-on-year due to favorable weather conditions. Production increases are likely to increase despite low international prices and limited financing that will likely discourage expanded planting area.

Given record area and prospects for good yields, wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to be a record 28.8 million tons. Due to an anticipated increase in area, 2024/25 rice production is also forecast to set a record.

Corn exports in 2023/24 are forecast to reach 1.5 million tons. The good harvest and decrease in poultry feed demand resulted in a large exportable surplus at competitive prices. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka are the top destinations. Feed consumption in 2023/24 is reduced from 7.7 to 6.6 million tons.

No significant changes are made to 2023/24 rice and wheat supply and demand forecasts. Private sector wheat import commitments of about 1.4 million tons underpin the 2 million ton 2023/24 wheat import forecast.

FAS (Post) revises Venezuela corn and rice production higher for market year (MY) 2023/2024 due to improved access to higher-quality agricultural inputs and seeds, and favorable weather conditions.

Based on the export pace through the first 10 months of the year, the 2022/23 rice export estimate is reduced from 3.7 to 3.4 million tons.