Browse Data and Analysis

Due to the impact of the recent flooding, the 2022/23 rice production forecast is lowered to 8.3 million tons. With a slow-down in exports during July and August, plus the recent flooding causing a pause in export activities, marketing year 2021/22 rice exports are lowered to 4.5 million tons.

Export prices decreased 1-2 percent due to the further weakening of the Thai baht.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains wheat and barley planted area forecast, while raising yield forecast on the account of reports that grain harvest and storage operations took place in good conditions. Post forecast MY 2022/23 wheat at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT.

FAS Tokyo estimates MY2022/23 wheat and rice production in Japan to decrease from last year's bumper crop due to poor weather conditions in major production regions. Due to favorable weather, Post estimates the MY2022/23 barley crop to increase from MY2021/22.

Demand for Thai rice pushes export prices higher despite the weakening of the Thai baht.

The Government of Morocco has released its final wheat and barley production numbers for the 2022 crop, including 1.89 MMT of common wheat, 0.81 MMT of durum wheat, and 0.7 MMT of barley. The MY2022/23 wheat and barley harvest was down 67 percent compared to previous season due to severe drought.

The Dominican Republic (DR) achieved a record year for rice production in calendar year 2021 (CY 2021) of 654,156 metric tons (MT) and CY 2022 is showing similar results with estimated production of 658,000 MT. The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on production and consumption of rice; meanwhile, local retail prices have slightly risen. As of July 2022, the milled rice tariff rate quota (TRQ) has reached a 72 percent usage rate and is on track to exceed 100 percent.

Post forecasts Burmese rice exports higher in September with increasing demand for Burmese rice due to India’s policies restricting rice exports. Despite larger domestic rice supplies from the new rice crop, domestic prices for both Emata and Shwe Bo Pawsan rose significantly. The depreciation of the Myanmar kyat and high production costs have continued putting upward pressure on domestic rice prices.

Corn and wheat production forecasts remain unchanged in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Due to unfavorable weather conditions and less planted area, the sorghum production estimate is revised downward from USDA/Official estimate for MY 2021/22.

On September 9, the Government of Japan (GOJ) announced a 3.5 billion yen ($24.3 million) relief package to alleviate rising food and energy costs, funded through the Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY) 2022 reserve fund.

Rice export prices trend upward due to strong demand from foreign buyers.

On September 13, Kazakhstan announced the end of wheat and wheat flour export restrictions that had been in effect since April 14, 2022. Since the restrictions went into effect, Kazakhstani exporters utilized 83 percent of the wheat and 66 percent of...