Browse Data and Analysis

India is gearing up for a record wheat harvest in market year (MY) 2024/2025. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India's wheat production at 112.5 million metric tons (MMT), thanks to the timely and record plantings of wheat, which benefitted from favorable weather conditions from the time of planting through the reproductive growth stages.

Rice export prices further declined 1-3 percent due to the weakening of the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar and the downward price pressure from the new MY2023/24 off-season rice supplies.

For MY 2024/25, Post estimates that wheat area harvested will total 195,000 hectares (ha), a 2.5 percent decrease from MY 2023/24 to due to high input costs and low prices. Wheat production will reach 1.17 million metric tons (MMT).

Guatemala continues to be a net importer of both yellow corn and rice. Corn area and production in MY2024/2025 are forecast to slightly increase to keep up with increased consumption for both food and feed; the avian sector keeps steady growth at 3-4 percent annually.

South Africa’s corn crop in marketing year 2023/24 has been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected drop of more than 15 percent in crop volume.

FAS Bangkok forecasts Thailand’s rice and corn production to marginally increase in MY 2024/25 along with expanded acreage in response to current attractive farm-gate prices. In 2025, Thailand will likely export 7.5 million metric tons of rice or well above its 5-year average.

Good vegetation conditions in the east and center regions in Algeria bode for a rebound in MY 2024/25 wheat harvest.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 milled rice production will increase to 12.125 million MT as the country emerges from the current El Nino and government spending on inputs and machinery contributes to increased yield.

Wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 are forecast at 2 million metric tons (MMT). Canada led the Peruvian wheat market in calendar year (CY) 2023 with 72 percent market share.

Rice export prices dropped 2-3 percent as the Thai baht weakened and new MY 2023/24 off-season rice supplies entered the market.

On March 19, 2024, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Crop Variety Registration Committee (CNCVRC) published a second variety registration list for genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans.

In market year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia’s corn production is forecast to decrease to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) influenced by lower domestic corn prices and dissuading farmers from expanding corn cultivation.