Browse Data and Analysis

Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT.

For MY 2024/25, Post forecasts cotton area to grow 13 percent compared to the current season, to 1.87 million hectares. Post also forecasts cotton production at a record 15.4 million bales (3.3 million metric tons (MMT)) on the back of significant area increase.

Rice export prices further declined 1-3 percent due to the weakening of the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar and the downward price pressure from the new MY2023/24 off-season rice supplies.

FAS Bangkok forecasts Thailand’s rice and corn production to marginally increase in MY 2024/25 along with expanded acreage in response to current attractive farm-gate prices. In 2025, Thailand will likely export 7.5 million metric tons of rice or well above its 5-year average.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 planted area will expand at a slower growth rate, reaching 45.6 million hectares (ha). Post forecasts MY 2024/25 production at 157.5 million metric tons (MMT), 4.9 MMT more than the revised estimate in MY 2023/24.

Rice export prices dropped 2-3 percent as the Thai baht weakened and new MY 2023/24 off-season rice supplies entered the market.

Rice export prices stayed virtually unchanged as the strengthening of the Thai baht offset the downward price pressure from new off-season MY 2023/24 rice supplies entering the market.

Brazil is the second-largest chicken meat producer in the world after the United States, and the largest chicken meat exporter in the world.

Rice export prices increased 1-2 percent due to the strengthening of the Thai baht and the demand for white rice from Indonesia.

From February 23, 2024, U.S. wines can access the Thai market duty-free and with lower excise taxes.

Rice export prices remain unchanged as the downward price pressure from the new supplies of white rice offsets the strengthening of the Thai baht.

Brazil is currently at the bottom of the cattle cycle, liquidating inventories since 2023. The oversupply of cattle for slaughter has led to a slow price recovery and longer-term impact to the replacement market.