Browse Data and Analysis

Australian beef supply is forecast to make a substantial step towards recovery in 2023 after falling to the lowest level in decades in 2021 and generating only a marginal improvement in 2022. The Australian cattle industry is expected to continue its strong herd rebuild in 2023 but with female slaughter rates rising.

In 2023, imports of breeding swine and pork are expected to decline to 5,000 head and 1.85 million metric tons (MMT), respectively, due to lower domestic hog and pork prices. Consumer price sensitivity and competition among producers are expected to constrain pork and hog price increases, squeezing margins. Strong carryover stocks of beef cattle from 2022 into 2023 will support an increase in cattle and beef production to 52.575 million head and 7.4 MMT, respectively.

The retail sector in El Salvador has remained strong and stable, with new outlets opening and new online shopping options. Super Selectos is the largest supermarket chain, followed by Walmart which in January 2022 announced it is considering the sale of its outlet stores in El Salvador. Imports of U.S. consumer-oriented products reached a record-high of $267 million in 2021.

FAS Mumbai (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton production at 27.7 million 480 lb. bales on an area of 12.8 million hectares. The current sowing progress indicates that farmers are preferring to plant higher cotton area due to prevailing high market prices. Indian yields are expected to improve by three percent due to above normal rains in major cotton growing regions.

India’s national cattle herd inventory in marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) is forecast marginally higher at 307.4 million head. India’s MY 2023 production of carabeef (meat derived from the Asian domestic water buffalo) and beef is forecast at 4.42 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of two percent from the current year’s estimate on continued restrictive policies on slaughter of bovine animals.

India’s soybean production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is slightly lowered to 11.4 million metric tons (MMT) because of the impacts of the delayed and erratic 2022 monsoon. Cumulative edible oil imports in the October 2021 to June 2022 period have increased one percent to 10.l MMT, and crude palm oil remains the primary consumed oil.

Post forecasts cotton imports from the United States to grow by 10 percent in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Post forecast for MY 2022/23 production will increase by nearly 19 percent from previous year. Mexico's textile industry continues to respond to strong demand for yarn and fabric, particularly in the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) region, for final product export to the Untied States.

Attractive cotton prices, good yields, and favorable weather conditions spurred Turkish farmers to plant more cotton earlier this spring. Owing to a larger than expected increase in cotton plantings, production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast higher at 950,000 metric tons (MT).

In 2023, chicken meat production in Turkey is estimated to increase 9 percent to 2.68 million metric tons (MMT) due to continuing export demands and slightly higher domestic consumption. In 2023, domestic chicken meat consumption is forecast at 1.7 MMT which is 5 percent higher than 2022 but under sector hopes, mostly due to expected continued high poultry meat prices at retail outlets that are unlikely to change in the lead-up to the 2023 presidential election.

On August 18, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued clarification (No. TIC-20012/2/2021-IMPORTS-FSSAI) that its requirement for AGMARK (an Indian certification mark), prior to import of blended edible vegetable oils (BEVO), is kept in abeyance (suspended) until further notice.

On September 5, 2022, the Dutch Minister of Agriculture, Nature, and Food Quality, Henk Staghouwer, resigned after he informed the Dutch Cabinet and Parliament about his Ministry’s delay in providing a plan for the future outlook of the Dutch agricultural sector and after he failed to obtain Brussels’ permission to continue to exceed caps on how much manure farmers can return to their fields.

On August 16, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued Clarification No. 1831/Misc./FSSAI/Imports/2022 pertaining to microbial testing requirements for imported food products.