Browse Data and Analysis

Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2022/2024 soybean production at 875,000 metric tons (MT), the lowest level in sixteen years due to a historic drought affecting Uruguay and neighboring Argentina. As a result, Post reduces MY 2022/23 exports to 850,000 MT.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post’s soybean import forecast is 2.4 million MT, on Bangladesh rebounding from its current economic slowdown, while local soybean production remains flat.

Modest growth in the animal protein sector is expected to raise China’s soybean imports to 97 million metric tons (MMT) in Marketing Year (MY) 23/24. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) removal of COVID-related restriction in December 2022 is expected to boost overall oilseed consumption.

Turkey’s production of major oilseeds – sunflowerseeds, cottonseeds, and soybeans – in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is projected to decrease year-over-year because of pre-earthquake market dynamics.

The Korea oilseeds and products market is mature with limited annual change, reflecting stable consumer demand and stagnant domestic production.

Tunisian MY 2023/24 soybean imports are expected to reach 540,000 MT, compared to 510,000 MT in MY 2022/23. Tunisian olive oil exports are forecast to reach 200,000 MT in MY 2023/24, compared to 155,000 MT in MY 2022/23.

In 2022/23, Brazil is forecast to reap a record soybean crop of 153 million metric tons (MMT). Post maintained the forecast for planted area expansion of 43.3 million hectares (ha). Harvest lags behind schedule compared to previous years,

Due to the recent ban on genetically engineered (GE) commodity imports, the 2022/23 soybean import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 1.2 million tons. With the lower expected soybean imports, 2022/23 crush and soybean meal output is reduced accordingly.

Indonesia 2022/23 palm oil consumption is expected to rise to 19.4 million metric tons (MMT) on increased use for biodiesel production, as the Government of Indonesia (GOI) rolls out higher blending rates for its 2023 mandatory biodiesel blending program.

Dry weather and high temperatures in the last months of 2022 have damaged the Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 Argentine soybean crop, particularly affecting first crop soybeans within a 125 kilometer radius of Rosario, Santa Fe Province.

Post increased the 2022/23 forecast for soybean planted area expansion to 43.3 million hectares (ha) and soybean production to 153 million metric tons (MMT). This season sowing began optimistically, with most soybeans planted on time compared to last year. However, in the southern part of the country including Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, rains will be needed in January because if continues to be dry, the crop will be negatively impacted.

U.S. agricultural exports to China in fiscal year (FY) 2022 were $36.4 billion and surpassed the previous year’s record with China as the largest export market for the second consecutive year. Significantly higher agricultural prices and resilient demand helped drive exports above the previous year’s record despite lower volumes for most products.