Browse Data and Analysis

China’s marketing year (MY) 22/23 soybean production is forecast to reach a near-record 19 million metric tons (MMT) on higher yields. Post maintains forecasted MY 22/23 soybean imports at 96.5 MMT on higher demand for soybean meal (SBM) for swine and poultry and vegetable oil demand for food sector use. Import growth is forecast to be partially constrained by higher domestic soybean production, ongoing sales of state reserve soybeans, and ongoing uncertainty regarding People’s Republic of China (PRC) COVID restrictions.

India’s domestic apple and pear production in market year (MY) (July-June) 2022/23 are estimated at 2.35 million metric tons (MMT) and 311,000 metric tons (MT), respectively. Favorable rainfall in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh has augmented yields and will lead to increased exports. Market year 2022/23 apple imports are estimated at 430,000 MT.

Korea’s 2022/23 pear production is projected to increase by 16 percent, driven mostly by increased yields due to favorable weather. Korean pear consumption is projected to rise by 14.3 percent following a 6 percent fall in market prices, with the balance of increased production going to exports. Fresh pear imports (including U.S. origin) are not allowed under Korea’s existing phytosanitary regulations.

Export prices increased one percent due to the strengthening of the Thai baht and strong export demand.

EU commercial apple production in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at 11.9 MMT, an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous year. EU commercial pear production is expected to amount to 1.99 MMT, a rebound from the 14% lower crop in the previous year.

In marketing year 2022/23, wheat production is forecast up more than 50 percent from the previous year on increased acreage and higher yields due to improved soil moisture. Wheat exports are forecast to increase year-over-year on larger domestic supplies. Crop 2022 will be the first sizable crop in four years to compete for rail services with other sectors throughout an entire marketing year. Non-durum and durum wheat are expected to be of high quality, resulting in lower feed-grade wheat supplies.

Mexico has 1.2 million hectares of certified organic land in use. Eighty-six percent of all organic products are collected and harvested from natural habitats. In 2021, there were 48,641 certified organic producers in Mexico. The honey and coffee sectors have the most certified organic producers, while the avocado and berry industries produce the most in terms of value. Mexico represents an export market opportunity for U.S organic products, especially for younger and more affluent demographic groups.

Saudi Arabia’s barley imports for the first six months of MY 2022/23 (July – Dec. 2022) are estimated at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of six percent compared to the same period last year. Post’s current projection for total barley imports for MY 2022/23 is 4.5 MMT, which is a decrease of four percent compared to the USDA official estimate of 4.7 MMT. Unless the price of barley drastically decreases, Post anticipates demand will remain low throughout MY 2022/23.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. The current high input cost environment and an upsurge in soybean plantings are deterring any bullish outlook in expanding corn area, despite record high commodity prices and three consecutive bumper crops. Higher farming input costs are escalating the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry.

In 2022, industries report a 35 to 40 percent increase in cultivation costs to reach almost $28,000 per hectare. The increase in costs is due to the challenges of US dollar liquidity and high inflation. In MY 2022/2021, production is expected to reach 1.48 MMT and exports are forecasted at 180,000 MT. In 2022, Egypt added Sri-Lanka and Cameron to the list of importing countries.

Germany has more than 83 million of the world’s wealthiest consumers and is by far the biggest market in the European Union. Although halal and kosher food are considered niche markets, the German market offers opportunities for U.S. exporters of such products. This report provides U.S. exporters with background information and suggestions for entering the German market.

On October 18, 2022, The Government of the Philippines marked Bt eggplant as its third genetically engineered crop approved for commercial propagation, following Bt corn and Golden Rice.