Browse Data and Analysis

U.S. agricultural exports to China in fiscal year (FY) 2022 were $36.4 billion and surpassed the previous year’s record with China as the largest export market for the second consecutive year. Significantly higher agricultural prices and resilient demand helped drive exports above the previous year’s record despite lower volumes for most products.

Estimated cotton imports for marketing year (MY) 22/23 are reduced to 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) on high carry-in stocks, higher domestic production, weak consumption, and uncertainty concerning the issuance of additional import quota. Consumption is reduced to 7.7 MMT in both MY 21/22 and MY 22/23 on restrictive zero-COVID polices and slower economic growth that has resulted in lower demand for textile and apparel products.

On November 14, 2022, China notified a revised draft for the “National Standard of the People's Republic of China (PRC) Cotton—Saw Ginned Upland Cotton” to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee. The PRC requested WTO members submit comments in 60 days. This standard will replace GB 1103.1 - 2012 Cotton - Part 1: Saw Ginned Upland Cotton.

Estimated cotton imports for marketing year (MY) 22/23 are reduced to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) on high carry-in stocks and higher domestic production. MY 22/23 production is increased to 6 MMT on higher yields in Xinjiang. China’s slowing economy and weak domestic demand reduced cotton use in MY 21/22 to 8 MMT and lowered imports to 1.76 MMT.

A recent industry survey in one of China’s leading provinces for textile and apparel manufacturing highlights the negative impact of the PRC’s zero-tolerance COVID policy in the world’s largest cotton market and area economy. According to survey results, production estimates are down, costs are higher, and deliveries are delayed.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

Higher downstream demand for textiles and garments and reduced cotton yarn imports are expected to raise spinning demand for cotton in marketing year (MY) 22/23, lifting cotton imports to an estimated 2.3 million metric tons (MMT).

Post expects China's MY 2021/22 cotton imports and production to decline from the previous forecast.

With the China Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) price surging 58 percent from its August 2020 level to RMB 20,150 (or, approximately U.S. $3,100) per metric ton (MT) on October 8, 2021, the Chinese government (PRC) is taking steps to rein in prices.

While hemp has been grown in China for centuries, liberalization of production, processing, and use regulations have only come in recent years.

Cotton imports are forecast at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 21/22. U.S. cotton exports to China surged to 1.2 MMT in the first 11 months of MY20/21, up from the 0.47 MMT in MY19/20, pushing the U.S. share of China’s cotton imports to 45 percent.

A look at how U.S. agricultural exports performed in 2020.