Browse Data and Analysis

Despite challenges related to the slow economy, citrus production in China for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is expected to continue to grow, outperforming other fruit categories.

Already reeling from high fruit prices, Korean consumers will face another year of expensive, lower-quality apples. Korea’s apple production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 fell 25 percent year-on-year after orchards suffered a series of adverse weather events in 2023.

Japan’s MY 2022/23 mandarin production recovers from last year’s historically lowest production. However, overall Japanese citrus planted area and production is on a downward trend amidst aging farmers, labor shortages, and a lack of successors for running farms.

Early seasonal conditions for the MY 2023/24 citrus crop have been favorable, and producers expect to benefit from an easing of fertilizer and crop protection chemical costs, along with a further easing of labor constraints. Orange production is expected to increase five percent to 530,000 metric tons (MT) from the prior’s year estimate, the second highest over the last two decades.

Ample opportunities exist for U.S. agricultural exports to South Korea. Highlighted in the chart above, U.S. agricultural product exports were a record $9.5 billion in 2022, up 2 percent from 2021. South Korea is the sixth largest export market for the United States, thanks in part to a successful free trade agreement (KORUS) between the two countries and a robust demand for high-quality U.S. food products.

World peach and nectarine1 production has seen significant growth in the past decade, rising more than 20 percent from 19.6 million tons to 24.2 million in 2022/23.

Taiwan’s MY 2022/23 apple imports were 131,252 MT and are forecast at 130,000 MT for MY 2023/24. The United States remains the largest supplier of apples by volume but the market share of Japan, New Zealand, and Chile are all extremely close behind.

Post estimates China’s production of apples, pears, and table grapes to increase to 45 MMT, 19.6 MMT, and 13.5 MMT, respectively, in MY 2023/24.

New Zealand apple-planted area in the 2023/2024 market year is forecast to drop substantially from 11,000 ha to 9,200 ha.

Korean fresh pear production is expected to decrease 20 percent in Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 as adverse weather events struck orchards throughout spring flowering and into the summer. Supplies of high-quality pears are expected to be below average because of high rates of damaged fruit.

Australia’s table grape production is expected to increase to a record 220,000 MT in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 from an estimated 210,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2022/23.

Stone fruit production in Australia is forecast to increase in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, following two successive seasons affected by unseasonably wet weather, labor shortages at harvest, logistics challenges, and very high costs due to the COVID-19 pandemic.