Browse Data and Analysis

South Africa is on course to produce a fourth consecutive bumper corn crop in MY 2022/23, which creates a bearish outlook on local corn prices and will limit growth in the area to be planted with corn in MY2023/24.

South Africa’s grain production is off to a decent start in marketing year 2022/23. Above-average rains over most parts of the summer rainfall production area during November and December enhanced crop plantings and provided conducive growing conditions.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. The current high input cost environment and an upsurge in soybean plantings are deterring any bullish outlook in expanding corn area, despite record high commodity prices and three consecutive bumper crops. Higher farming input costs are escalating the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry.

The sharp upsurge in the cost of farming inputs for corn farmers in South Africa intensified the risk of production in a weather dependent industry, despite record-high commodity prices. As a result, Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. However, South Africa should maintain its status as a net exporter of corn under normal weather conditions.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favorable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season.

South Africa had an excellent start to the 2021/22 MY, with carry-over soil moisture and widespread rains that led corn producers to start plantings two to four weeks earlier than usual. Excessive rainfall during December to early January caused damage to planted crops in some areas that could impact crop size, although the extent will only become clear over the next few months.

After last season’s second consecutive bumper corn crop, the positive outlook for the South African grain industry will continue in the 2021/22 MY as evidenced by a 30 percent upsurge in tractor sales and the intention of commercial producers to maintain a corn area of 2.7 million hectares.

South Africa should remain a net exporter of corn in the 2021/22 marketing year (MY) on excess supplies.

Post estimates that the decreasing trend in sorghum production will continue in the 2021/22 MY, although sorghum production increased to a 7-year high in the 2020/21 MY due to favorable weather conditions

South Africa should remain a net exporter of corn in the 2021/22 MY on excess supplies.

Due to the promising start the summer rainfall season and the current favorable weather conditions, there is increased optimism that South Africa will produce a second consecutive bumper corn crop...

Due to relatively attractive local corn prices, progressive exports and favorable weather forecasts, South Africa is entertaining a positive outlook for the 2020/21 MY’s corn plantings.