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Fresh fruit bunch (FBB) and kernel yields are expected to remain high in MY2024/25 due to stabilized fertilizer prices and a good weather forecast. In response to the growing domestic and export demands, MY2024/25 soybean production forecast has been raised by 16 percent over the preceding year’s estimate.

Post forecasts Argentina soybean production at 51 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 as production returns to assuming good weather in the year ahead and increased soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn, particularly in late or second crop soy.

Due to higher input costs associated with planting corn, rice, and other crops, soybean and peanut production is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Private sector investors are expanding oil palm production and increasing processing capacity to take advantage of strong demand and high prices.

India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October-September) is forecast to reach 41.9 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal drop from MY2023/2024 estimate of 42.7 MMT due weaker prices for Indian producers, limited agricultural input availability, and weather trends.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 soybean meal imports to reach 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 4 percent attributed to the growing feed demand for livestock, poultry, and aquaculture. The projected 3 percent growth in soybean meal equivalent (SME) consumption coincides with the forecasted 3 percent increase in livestock production during the same period.

In relation to persistent rising food prices, Japan has seen a decline in overall vegetable oil consumption. Due to the more favorable crush margin for canola compared to soybeans, FAS/Tokyo forecasts a reduction in soybean imports and crush, while seeing an increase in rapeseed imports and crush for both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.

Vietnam’s economy is on the path to recovery. Post revises Vietnam’s MY2022/23 soybean meal consumption down to 5.65 MMT due to lower aquaculture feed consumption and forecasts an increase to 5.85 MMT in MY 2023/24.

Breaking with historical practice, Korean soybean crushers began operating below full capacity in mid-2023 and are forecast to further reduce crush volume into marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Soybean imports are forecast to recover slightly from MY 2023/24, but will still remain below average levels on sluggish crushing demand.

Despite economic challenges and high feed prices, demand for feed is expected to grow in Bangladesh as large commercial poultry farms expand their operations and some major feed producers have initiated contract poultry farming.

Post revises down MY 2023/24 soybean production to 158.5 MMT due to poor weather outlooks resulting from El Niño, particularly in the Centre West states, which may affect final yields currently projected at 3.507 kg/ha.

Indonesia palm oil production for 2023/24 is revised down slightly to 45.8 million metric tons (MMT) due to lower yields from El Nino-induced dryness. Soybean consumption for 2022/23 is revised down on slower demand from the food sector. Reduced use...

U.S. soybean meal exports set a record at an estimated 13.2 million tons in MY 2022/23 (Oct-Sep), valued at nearly $7 billion, driven by increased soybean crush to supply feedstock oil for growing U.S. biomass-based diesel production.